On Thursday afternoon, a wild turn of events shocked the college football world. An announcement broke that UCLA and USC would be joining the Big Ten in 2024.
The move signifies a major shift for a majority of reasons, many of which have a direct impact on Notre Dame. The flight of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten, coupled with Texas and Oklahoma’s announced move to the SEC last year, shows that all conventional rules of conference alignment are out the window.
Traditionally and almost exclusively centered in the upper midwest, the Big Ten now adds a pair of southern California giants. Previously, the Big 10 was a conference comprised of mostly large state schools. Now, with USC joining, they add their first private institution since Northwestern joined as a founding member in 1896.
In short, the addition of the two new schools to the Big Ten is a knife in the back of the proposed “Alliance” between the Big Ten, Big 12 and PAC 12. That alliance was formed in response to the SEC’s additions. This move says loud and clear what many college football fans have whispered about for the last year. That the sport is about to enter an arms race between the Big Ten and SEC.
Not even being a member of a power five conference ensures security. That much is evidenced by the SEC and Big Ten handpicking new members from the Big 12 and PAC 12. And now, both the Big 12 and PAC 12 are unstable without two of their leading sources of revenue. Now more than ever, the possibility of a free-for-all scramble to find safe haven looms large.
Ball in Notre Dame‘s court
Unsurprisingly, this turn of events puts a uniquely large decision in the hands of Notre Dame and its athletic director, Jack Swarbrick. As college football’s lone blue-blood independent, the Fighting Irish have for the last year occupied a unique role in the chaos of realignment.It’s no secret that every conference would be over the moon to add Notre Dame to their ranks. The Irish are flush with qualities that would make them a stalwart addition. The school’s national brand is reason enough. But then there‘s the blue-blood football team and other highly ranked, championship-winning programs.
In theory, Notre Dame has the most leverage it has ever had as an independent — every conference knows landing the Irish would be a coup. But there is also an urgency to the decision that has never existed previously. Notre Dame could opt to stick to its guns and remain independent. For decades now, the Irish have held pat against criticism and continued to bet on themselves and their unique individual schedule and TV deal.
But the stakes on such a self-bet have been raised like never before. Notre Dame currently enjoys a lucrative deal with NBC for football television rights. But with the Big Ten and SEC rising quicker and quicker, the possibility looms that in both the immediate or distant future such a lucrative deal could be dwarfed by conference contracts from FOX or ESPN.
Thankfully, while urgent, the decision that Notre Dame faces can still be made on their own time. Many reports have already indicated that the Big Ten has given the Irish first refusal on a bid to join the conference and are holding off on adding new members until Swarbrick and the Notre Dame Athletic Department respond. It’s no secret that the ACC has long desired to add Notre Dame. Now more than ever as occupants of a shaky middle ground between the SEC/Big Ten elite and the raided Big 12/PAC 12 class, the ACC could use a marquee addition to stand their ground in the conference arms race. Even the SEC, though likely a distant third in interest of adding the Irish, could see major benefit in taking in a staple midwest blue blood in a power move over the Big Ten.
So what benefits and drawbacks exist to the deals Notre Dame would cut with each conference?
Sticking with the ACC
This would essentially be staying the course for the Irish. Notre Dame’s teams already play in the ACC (with the exceptions of football and hockey).In the ACC, the Irish would have to suffer the loss of their independence without cushioning the blow by joining one of the two new dominant mega-conferences. However, the ACC could lose members of their own if they don’t bolster their ranks by adding Notre Dame. With this risk for the ACC, the Irish would enjoy the most leverage in negotiating their entry. Perhaps, they could even keep their NBC broadcast deal on the table. Adding football to the conference they already play in would avoid the messy negotiations of buying out or breaking their current contract with the ACC.
The ACC also potentially remains the best option for Notre Dame‘s non-football sports. The conference remains one of the best for Olympic sports, and the Irish enjoy a lot of strong and growing rivalries in baseball and on the basketball court. The Irish took home conference titles in soccer and lacrosse, sports not even offered in every Power-5 conference. Logistically, remaining in the ACC is the simplest option. But on the gridiron, it‘s the least exciting and potentially the least viable given the future of the sport.
Breaking for the Big Ten?
In the Big Ten, the Irish enjoy the immediate benefit of joining what would appear to be one of the two new elite conferences that are emerging. Furthermore, Notre Dame wouldn’t run the risk of losing arguably their biggest yearly rivalry in USC and also might be able to pick up a yearly game with other rivals like Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue. The Big Ten would have to change some major precedent in conference rules to bring in the Irish — Notre Dame isn’t a member of the Association of American Universities, which 15 of the 16 current Big Ten schools are. They’d also become the only religious university in the conference. And while the buyout of all of Notre Dame’s teams (spare football and hockey) would be difficult, the Irish would fit the geographic profile of the Big Ten’s core better than any other conference.The Big 10 also remains probably the most viable option outside the ACC for the Irish to continue to thrive in other sports. The conference put three teams in the NCAA Men‘s Lacrosse Tournament this past spring. They added nine in the NCAA Men‘s Basketball Tournament. Additionally, they had three teams in the NCAA women‘s soccer Elite Eight. The conference‘s prowess across a variety of sports provide an enticing option for the Irish.
Does the SEC remain an option?
The final dark horse candidate is the SEC. A move to the SEC wouldn’t make a ton of sense at face value for a variety of reasons. The SEC boasts none of the rivalries that the Big Ten or even the ACC could tempt Notre Dame with, which would require the continuation of yearly games like USC or Navy to be performed exclusively in non-conference game slots. Combined with an already-difficult SEC schedule, the yearly addition of a school like USC plus Navy or even Stanford would make the Irish’s schedule consistently one of the most grueling in the country.Additionally, the SEC doesn‘t have soccer, lacrosse or fencing. The Irish face a significant downgrade in other sports outside football if they make a move for the south.
Geographically a move to the SEC makes virtually zero sense for the Irish. But as the addition of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten shows, geography isn’t worth all that much in the modern college football landscape. What does matter in the current chaos is money. And joining up with the SEC would likely make Notre Dame more money than any other option.
Whenever the Irish do make a choice on whether they’ll remain independent or join a conference, their decision will make headlines across the nation. The Irish have remained steadfast as an independent for over a century (aside from their one year pandemic deal with the ACC in 2020) and their joining of any conference would make history. The question now becomes do Jack Swarbrick and the Irish bet on themselves and hold pat or secure their future and join up?
