Since the 2017 season, Notre Dame football has faced off against six different teams from the Mid-American Conference. In three of those games — 2017 Miami (Ohio), 2019 Bowling Green and 2023 Central Michigan — the Irish played to expectations and won handily. In the remaining three games — 2018 Ball State, 2021 Toledo and 2024 Northern Illinois — the Irish played down to their mid-major competition. They either won in excruciatingly ugly fashion or, in the case of this season’s home opener, lost the game entirely.
Notre Dame has had close encounters against opponents from other low-level conferences, namely the Sun Belt’s Marshall in 2022, but the MAC seems to challenge the Irish more frequently than any other league. Using Notre Dame’s last eight seasons of MAC matchups, let’s break down what the Irish must do well to avoid a scare against Miami this weekend.
Score early and often
You might say, ‘Duh! Of course Notre Dame is more likely to win when it scores more points.’ Yes, that’s true. But in the case of MAC games, winning comfortably has come down to when the Irish score those points. Just look at their three blowout wins. Against Miami, the Irish racked up 28 points in the first quarter, 45 by halftime. In the Bowling Green game, they dropped 21 in quarter one and led 35-0 at the midway break. Last year’s Central Michigan saw Notre Dame score 21 points in the game’s first 16 minutes.
Now for the ugly games. Against Ball State, the Irish sluggishly led 14-6 at halftime and would go on to win 24-16. Two weeks ago in the 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois, they received halftime boo birds for scoring only seven points in the first half. Even when the Irish outgunned Toledo by a 32-29 margin in 2021, they scored 18 of those points in the fourth quarter alone. Three quarters in, Notre Dame trailed that game 16-14.
Pulling away early isn’t just a matter of scoring on the opening drive. Notre Dame did that in all three of its ugly MAC games. To play to their full potential, the Irish must repeat scoring drives early and pile up the points before the RedHawks can feel even a semblance of comfort.
Defend the opening drive
If scoring on the opening drive hasn’t always helped, what about defending it? There has been a direct connection to the first drives of Notre Dame’s opponents and their ability to hang around in the game. Miami threw an interception to start. Bowling Green gained three yards on three plays out of the gate. Central Michigan went three-and-out right away. All three of them lost by at least 27 points in South Bend.
On the contrary, when the MAC teams land an early punch, Notre Dame tends to flounder in recovery. Ball State opened with a field goal that the Irish followed with four consecutive scoreless drives. Toledo made a field goal on each of its first two forays down the field. Northern Illinois blew open the Irish defense for an 83-yard passing touchdown just a few plays in.
It happened recently against Ohio State and USC, two opponents of a much higher caliber. When Notre Dame’s defense makes a big play or two early in the game, the Notre Dame Stadium crowd raises its engagement level and makes life more difficult for the visiting team. Saturday’s crowd won’t rival those of last season’s two night games, but it can overwhelm Miami in a hurry if the Irish start fast on defense.
Run the football and do it well
This style of play goes hand-in-hand with the ability to put up points early. When you’re in the lead from the get-go and have no need for shot plays, it’s a whole lot easier to keep the ball on the ground. That’s exactly what the Irish did in their MAC blowouts, running for an average of 267.3 yards per game and badly outgaining their opponents. In all three of those contests, Notre Dame had a 100-yard rusher — Audric Estimé went for 176 yards against Central Michigan last year. In two of the three games, the Irish boasted four or more players with 30-plus rushing yards.
When they’ve played close with MAC schools, the Irish have had big problems in the trenches. In such games, they have averaged only 124 yards, less than half of their typical total in lopsided victories. All three of the strugglesome games have also featured the opponent either rushing for more total yards or more yards per carry than the Irish. Notre Dame didn’t come within a country mile of that happening in the three blowouts.
The rushing attack is clearly the number one facet of this year’s Notre Dame offense. Using it to success should lead the Irish to a battering of Miami this weekend.
Win the turnover margin
This is perhaps the most black-and-white difference-maker for Notre Dame against the MAC. In the three blowouts, the Irish did not turn the ball over once while taking it away three times total. In the three uncomfortable games, they didn’t just turn the football over. They lost the turnover battle outright every time. Against Northern Illinois, a fourth-quarter interception from senior quarterback Riley Leonard served as the first of several death knells for Notre Dame.
Conglomerating these four Irish keys, you might notice something: this looks a lot like what Notre Dame did to beat Purdue 66-7 last week. You’re right! In that game, the Irish scored 42 points in the first half, didn’t allow Purdue to score at all in the first half, outgained the Boilermakers by 318 yards on the ground and won the turnover battle by a 2-0 margin. If Notre Dame can employ the same formula this week, it should breeze past Miami and get to 3-1 on the year.
