Just under two weeks ago, when I ranked all 12 of Notre Dame football’s regular-season opponents by difficulty, I led off with this note about Northern Illinois week: “I rank this game with respect for Notre Dame’s 2022 home opener. That year’s Irish came home from a physical, Week One loss at Ohio State and proceeded to lose to Marshall. This game sets up similarly, coming on the heels of what projects as a grueling season-opener at Texas A&M.”
What do you know — the Marshall loss just happened all over again. With 26 more games of head coaching experience under Marcus Freeman’s belt, Notre Dame is ranked No. 5 in the country, rather than No. 8, and the Irish are playing as four-touchdown — not three-touchdown — favorites at home.
Now, I don’t bring up that Marshall comparison to pat myself on the back for predicting the greatest upset in Mid-American Conference history. I ranked Northern Illinois as the second-easiest game on Notre Dame’s schedule. I write that the Irish should take care of business against the Huskies. Heck, I predicted a 45-10 Notre Dame win in last week’s Irish Insider!
But who could have seen it coming? Why would anyone have seen it coming? A year-three Freeman-led team was supposed to be past that type of loss. The head coach even said as much in his postgame press conference, which, like the game, I just found so confusing. Watching the same Marcus Freeman that so confidently led the Irish into College Station a week prior mutter through an opening statement before having to awkwardly pause and let the band go by just felt so strange. I couldn’t help but think to myself, “What in the world are we doing here?”
Sure enough, we’re here. Northern Illinois defeated Notre Dame as a 28-point underdog in South Bend. You want answers. There might not be good answers right now. But the Irish just made a mess of themselves on national television, and the cleanup has to start somewhere.
I’ll preface this conversation with one request from you, the reader. Do not lean on the fact that the College Football Playoff now admits 12 teams. If you’re a fan, use it as a source to keep hope alive. But otherwise, don’t bank on the expanded playoff healing all wounds. If you watched 2022, Freeman’s first head coaching season, you know that 11-1 itself is far from a guarantee. The 2022 team, which opened with a loss to Ohio State — much like this year’s win over Texas A&M — didn’t shake Irish fans' confidence despite the later loss to Marshall, ultimately finishing the regular season at 8-4. With Louisville, Georgia Tech and USC still waiting, 10-2 feels almost like a certainty, 9-3 a clear possibility.
That doesn’t mean the Irish should ditch their playoff hopes entirely (although if doing so helps them avoid a fourth loss as a multi-touchdown home favorite in three years, go for it). Any team should want to win all of its games and keep its long-term goal in view to drive short-term progress. But this program is now inexcusably one loss away from having to ask itself some extremely difficult questions, and it all starts with the man in charge.
Look, I’m not going to use the Northern Illinois game as a reason to view Marcus Freeman’s head coaching tenure through manure-colored lenses. He’s won some big games and had Notre Dame well-prepared to fight tooth and nail in several more. He’s an excellent player’s coach, motivator and ambassador for his institution. Let’s not forget that, within the past week, Nick Saban sung his praises. But if you’re going to truly succeed as the head football coach at Notre Dame — which means championships — you must be much closer to perfect than he is right now.
Put simply, Freeman — and in turn the team that follows his lead — has to become more consistent. This season’s start provides a microcosm of that issue. Notre Dame went into Kyle Field picked against almost unanimously on College Gameday and won in front of 107,000 people. Many called it Freeman’s best win. We all know what happened a week later.
As is the case with players, any good coach can lead a great practice, game or season (remember when Tyrone Willingham and Charlie Weis went 10-3?). But the best of the best don’t just do it one time. They do it on almost every occasion across a long period of time. That element of consistency is missing on Freeman’s résumé, and it shows in the team’s mental focus lapses.
There are the macro lapses, found in Notre Dame’s inability to perform after going all out — whether in preparation or play — for a difficult road game. There was the Ohio State-to-Marshall transition two years ago. Then the dud in Louisville that followed last season’s gutty, primetime win at Duke. Now it’s Texas A&M and Northern Illinois. It’s like the Irish step on the gas pedal for one stretch of the highway, take their foot off expecting cruise control to kick in, only to realize that the car is slowing and the next week’s opponent is about to speed by.
What about the micro lapses? Putting 10 men on the field for last year’s game-deciding play against Ohio State certainly qualifies. So far this season, it’s been a matter of timeout usage. Against both Texas A&M and Northern Illinois, the Irish burned their first timeout of the second half on relatively inconsequential plays early in the third quarter of close games. On Saturday, Freeman couldn’t remember exactly why he used the suspicious timeout. As if it wasn’t the timeout that could’ve given Notre Dame an extra 30 seconds to extend its final drive and win the game with a closer field goal. If the Irish want to rank among college football’s elite programs, which right now I don’t believe it does, their leaders must be sharper at all times.
Perhaps the second-most important leader behind Freeman, of course, is the quarterback, the second area where Notre Dame faces major scrutiny. I get it. Riley Leonard has not looked good as a passer. He has offered the Irish offense barely more than Tyler Buchner did at the start of the ‘22 season. But, unlike many Notre Dame fans I’ve heard voice their opinions, I’m not quite ready to bench him.
Let’s look back at the last time Notre Dame made a clean change at the quarterback position: 2018. I won’t consider 2021’s brief replacement of Jack Coan, because Tyler Buchner had already been receiving significant reps before the benching and no functioning program should look to operate with the three-quarterback carousel the Irish deployed in that Cincinnati game.
In 2018, Notre Dame started the year ranked at No. 12 with Brandon Wimbush, the full-time 2017 starter. Wimbush, somewhat like Leonard, had always been a bit suspect through the air but lethal as a runner. He started the season with a three-game slate fairly similar to the one Leonard faces in 2024 — Michigan at home, Ball State at home, Vanderbilt at home. He was 42 of 76 passing for 589 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions while rushing for 136 yards on 49 attempts. With Notre Dame off to a 3-0 start but averaging less than 24 points per game, Wimbush gave way to Ian Book for Week Four.
The early numbers on Leonard’s Notre Dame tenure are similar. He’s been more efficient (38 of 62) while throwing for fewer yards per game (160.5) with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, one of them a badly underthrown game-changer in the fourth quarter against NIU. As a runner, he’s performed only slightly better, collecting 79 yards on 23 attempts. For me, Leonard deserves more patience than Wimbush due to his captaincy and the fact that Notre Dame brought him in to be the starter. However, that added patience fades because the Irish have populated the loss column. Still, two games in, I believe a move to bench Leonard signals unwanted panic from the coaching staff. Let him have the Purdue game and evaluate for a three-game homestand after that.
Regardless, the Riley Leonard problem goes beyond what he has or hasn’t done on the football field. Notre Dame seems to have an identity crisis at quarterback. Irish fans know it, and I think it’s why many have been so quick to call for Leonard’s benching. Since Ian Book’s departure, the Irish have developed absolutely nothing at quarterback. In 2021, they went to the transfer portal for Coan. They did the same for Sam Hartman a year ago. The only two homegrown signal-callers who have made regular-season starts — Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne — are now a wide receiver and a backup elsewhere, respectively. With Leonard in the picture as another transfer, it’s easy to lament that recruited pieces like Steve Angeli and CJ Carr lose a year of game-speed development or worse, consider transferring.
If Leonard continues to perform at his current rate and Notre Dame loses another September game, that’s when you really think about making a move. Until then, stick with the guy you brought in to lead your offense and let him figure it out with three transfer wideouts and a brand-new offensive coordinator. In my eyes, hitting the panic button now sends the wrong message to the team and guarantees you lose another game by October.
The bottom line is this: the dream of Marcus Freeman’s year-three ascension is on life support. With every game from here on out, Notre Dame’s playoff aspirations undeniably hang in the balance. Coach like it, practice it, play like it and restore faith with a dominant win at Purdue.
