Saturday’s matchup against No. 15 Louisville marks an inflection point in Notre Dame’s season. Heading into 2024, with the expanded 12-team field and a manageable schedule, it was always playoff-or-bust for the Irish. Many within the organization had even higher aspirations, to host a playoff game in South Bend on the third weekend of December. But after a shocking upset loss to Northern Illinois in Week Two, the entire outlook on the season changed. Notre Dame now risks being eliminated from playoff contention entirely before the beginning of October. Every game is already a must-win. If Louisville kills Notre Dame’s lingering playoff hopes for the second straight season, a very long two months lie ahead. A win, however, could mark a turning point.
Head coach Marcus Freeman has proven throughout his tenure that he can get his team to respond. The issue has always been handling success and creating unnecessary adversity to overcome. Last season’s loss against the Cardinals was a perfect example. Freeman’s squad had just ground out a tough win against No. 17 Duke on the road following a devastating defeat to No. 6 Ohio State in the previous week. But rather than carrying the momentum of the win forward, they fell flat against Louisville, suffering a deflating, 33-20 loss. Freeman made several in-game lineup configurations on the offensive line that spelled disaster only two weeks after an inexcusable error on the game’s final play, fielding only 10 men against the Buckeyes on their game-winning touchdown run. This season has been a similar story, coming up with a program-defining win against Texas A&M in College Station in the season opene, before turning around a week later and getting outplayed by Northern Illinois on home soil. Which Notre Dame will we get? That is a tough question that remains a struggle to answer in Freeman’s third year. Suffering a loss this weekend will bring up even tougher questions for Notre Dame’s head coach.
Despite rattling off a pair of victories to right the ship after NIU, the Irish have looked far from convincing in doing so. Even in a 66-7 rout against Purdue, they failed to ignite the passing attack, with senior quarterback Riley Leonard throwing for only 112 yards. The more concerning performance came last week, however, only managing 28 points against a lackluster Miami (Ohio) defense. The score does not reflect how hard those points were to come by. Leonard looked shaken after missing multiple layup-line throws, and the running game was shut down in the first quarter, held to only 23 yards. Struggles persisted in the second quarter, and Leonard’s inaccuracy through the air led to further defensive emphasis on a predictable rushing attack. The Irish looked far too one-dimensional. Special teams execution was sloppy, highlighted by a muffed punt from sophomore wide receiver Jordan Faison and a fumbled snap on an attempted field goal. Had Miami capitalized on Notre Dame’s mistakes, the score could have looked a lot different.
The offense finally found life before halftime once again through Leonard’s legs, as he punched in his fifth rushing touchdown of the season. He then led a two-minute drill to perfection closing the half, connecting with graduate widout Beaux Collins on a sideline shot to extend the lead to 14-3. A Notre Dame crowd that had been chanting junior quarterback Steve Angeli’s name alongside boos of frustration for Leonard breathed a collective sigh of relief. It was the senior transfer's first touchdown pass of the season. But even after that moment, the Irish never truly pulled away. Leonard’s second rushing touchdown of the day and sixth of the season, coming on fourth and short at midfield, would later ice the game for good, but not after more drives fell flat for the offense. Despite the comfortable scoreline, no one left the stadium with optimism about the team’s direction on that side of the ball.
With the current state of the offense, and no margin for error remaining, why should anyone have hope in this Notre Dame team? The defense. For all the shortcomings the Irish have had with the ball in their hands, the guys on the other side of the ball have played at an elite level all season. This is a national championship-caliber unit, and it has proven it through four weeks. It ranks in the top 15 in opponent points per game and yards per game, sixth in opponent passing efficiency, second in opponent completion percentage and have forced 1.5 turnovers per game. It made a statement against Texas A&M in Week One and helped Notre Dame avoid disaster against Miami, holding the RedHawks to three points despite the offense surrendering them numerous opportunities. Leaning on this group, the Irish are capable of grinding out the necessary wins on this schedule.
The doubts about Leonard are justified. But I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: he sets the ceiling for this team. Angeli may be the safer and more reliable option at this moment, but for a team with this high of aspirations, the offense needs to be more. Leonard has shown his incredible dual-threat ability, something that Angeli does not have in his repertoire and never will. Leonard, on the other hand, has shown flashes of his talent as a passer. He’s always had the pedigree with his arm, it is just a matter of putting it together with timing, accuracy and consistency. If he can do that, and add a much-needed dimension to the Denbrock offense, the Irish have a potential superstar in sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love, and a strong backfield running mate in junior Jadarian Price. The group has the tools to succeed. They just need to put it together.
I can’t come on here and say that Notre Dame belongs in that group of contenders right now. The Irish have not proven to be on that level. And yet, if they survive until the USC game with only one loss, everything is still on the table for this team. The matchup with the Cardinals presents itself as the largest obstacle ahead. A win here could mean everything. Freeman described his memories of their last matchup as going to therapy. On Saturday, his team must exorcise those demons and make it to the bye week with something still to play for. If they do, I believe it could be the moment they look back on with a playoff berth in December.
The views expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Observer.
