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Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024
The Observer

Notre Dame-Navy

Football beat picks: Notre Dame vs. Navy

Confidence in the Irish remains high coming off of a 31-13 victory

Noah Cahill

Notre Dame took care of business in Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a comfortable 31-13 victory over Georgia Tech. The game consolidated a Stanford blowout coming out of the bye week and was the kind of routine performance most were expecting from this team earlier in the season. Nonetheless, it is a good sign of growth heading into a Navy matchup that has proven to be a legitimate test. If I had asked before the season who the two ranked teams remaining on Notre Dame’s schedule were heading into Week Nine, most if not all would have said Florida State and USC, not Army and Navy. And yet, the Midshipmen come into the game undefeated sitting at No. 24 in the AP Poll.

Averaging 41 points per game, the Navy offense powered by the patented triple option has been prolific this season albeit against weaker American Athletic Conference competition. Quarterback Blake Horvath leads the charge with a team-high 621 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back Alex Tecza is next in line with 306 yards and seven touchdowns, but four other backs have logged over 20 carries with three totaling over 150 yards for the year. When they do opt to pass, running back Eli Heidenreich has done the majority of the work, hauling in 23 catches for 485 yards and five touchdowns. They have struggled defensively at times, as evidenced by a 56-44 shootout win over Memphis, in which they allowed 659 yards of total offense. They have been weakest against the run, allowing 162.8 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 92nd in the nation.

Unlike last season, Navy will be anything but a walkover for the Irish. Facing the triple option will be a massive test for a young linebacking corps that has struggled at times with eye discipline throughout the season. With that said, Rylie Mills and Howard Cross III have powered the defensive front of late, the graduate student pairing combining for 4.5 sacks in the past two weeks after a slow start to the season. As a whole, no matter how many injuries it suffers, this defense continues to dominate. Georgia Tech was only the second game that Al Golden’s unit has allowed more than one touchdown in a game. The Midshipmen should also be a good matchup for this Irish offense, who I believe will feed Jeremiyah Love early and often. After establishing the run, opportunities should open up for Riley Leonard and the passing attack, which has looked sharper than ever since the bye week. I see a competitive contest but a comfortable win for Notre Dame in the end. 

Notre Dame 35, Navy 10

Matthew Crow

After Notre Dame opened its 2023 slate with a 42-3 domination of Navy in Dublin, not many would have predicted that the Midshipmen would pose one of the Irish’s toughest tests just one season later. But that’s how things have turned out, with No. 24 Navy sitting at 6-0 entering Saturday’s neutral-site matchup at MetLife Stadium. Navy’s high-powered rushing attack has led the Midshipmen to the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the nation, but Notre Dame has allowed less than 12 points per game this season by way of an elite run defense that stifled Georgia Tech’s similarly effective ground game just one week ago, holding the Yellow Jackets to just 64 rushing yards. Given the Irish’s familiarity with Navy’s unique offensive scheme — and their talented secondary that will allow defensive coordinator Al Golden to commit more defenders to stopping the run — I see Notre Dame being the first team to slow down a Navy offense that has scored more than 30 points in every game it's played this season.

On the other side of the ball, the Irish offense has looked more and more comfortable each week and has the opportunity to continue that trend against a Navy defense that has been solid for much of the season but gave up 44 points and 659 total yards in a shootout win over Memphis earlier in the season. The Midshipmen had possession for just over 24 minutes in that game, and if Notre Dame can shake its streak of slow starts and string together a few long scoring drives early on, it can build confidence and keep the ball out of the hands of Navy’s dangerous offense as much as possible. I expect the Jeremiyah Love/Jadarian Price duo to continue leading the way for the Irish on the ground, while Riley Leonard builds on his improved passing play over the last few weeks while remaining a nearly unstoppable rushing threat in the red zone. Both offenses will find success in the first half before the defenses tighten up down the stretch, with the Irish leading throughout and pulling away late for their sixth straight win and third of the year against a ranked opponent.

Notre Dame 35, Navy 17

Annika Herko

When the season started, no one imagined that the team Notre Dame walloped in Ireland last year 42-3 would be anything special. Last year, at that postgame press conference, I remember Marcus Freeman telling the media room that he told Navy head coach Brian Newberry that he had a good team and that they’d get there. I remember thinking how Freeman must have just been being polite.

Navy has not had a challenging schedule so far, but it has avoided critical mistakes, allowing it to stay undefeated. As much as Notre Dame needs to stay focused this weekend to stay in the playoff hunt, Navy has a shot at a postseason bid as well. Notre Dame is by far its most impressive opponent, and whoever gets a win at MetLife Stadium this weekend should attract positive attention from the Playoff committee. 

One of the less talked about parts of Navy’s game is that the Midshipmen are 12th in the country in net field position. Comparatively, Notre Dame’s defense is 121st in the country in starting field position. The Midshipmen consistently have strong punt and kickoff returns, and their style of play allows them to hold the ball on offense for a long time, effectively controlling the flow of the game.

Notre Dame 24, Navy 13

Madeline Ladd

A historic Navy team is next up on Notre Dame’s gauntlet to the CFP. Navy is 6-0 for the first time since 1979 and cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time in over six years. Known traditionally for its triple-option offense, this year's team evolved into a high-powered attack, averaging 44.8 points per game — fourth in the nation. Dual-threat quarterback Blake Horvath is at the heart of this transformation, with 10 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing scores. Horvath has also only thrown one interception.

However, Navy's defense is a glaring weakness. Ranked 92nd in total defense, it gives up an average of 387 yards per game. Additionally, despite its undefeated record, Navy's strength of schedule is suspect. Its toughest opponent so far was Memphis, who still put up nearly 600 yards of total offense.

Notre Dame must play disciplined defense to contain Navy. The Irish offense needs to also be ready, as the Midshipmen will focus on stopping their ground attack and force Leonard to win through the air. He must shake off the struggles of previous games and deliver a turnover-free performance. 

Notre Dame should outlast Navy’s powerful but untested offense. Expect the Irish to pull away late with a 41-21 victory, keeping their playoff hopes alive.

Notre Dame 41, Navy 21

Tyler Reidy

It’s been a while since we could look at a clash for the Rip Miller Trophy with this much excitement. Both teams have the opportunity to reach uncharted territory with a Saturday win in New Jersey. Notre Dame has never won six consecutive games under Marcus Freeman — USC snapped its five-game win streak at the end of 2022. Navy hasn’t started a season 7-0 in 46 years. The loser almost certainly exits the College Football Playoff race.

Statistically speaking, Notre Dame hasn’t seen an offense at the level of Navy’s this season. The Midshipmen rank among the nation’s best in terms of points per game and rushing yards per contest. They also now wield a legitimate passing threat with quarterback Blake Horvath, who played in four games last year but never opposed the Irish. Notre Dame’s defense put forth a great performance last week but still remains without several key pieces, so while I wouldn’t expect Navy to clear 34 points for the seventh straight game, the Midshipmen will keep this close.

Notre Dame’s offense, which has all the firepower necessary, must dictate the flow of this game. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who together haven’t enjoyed big performances since Week Three, have to lead the way. Riley Leonard, whose 10 rushing scores on the season match Horvath’s total, needs to take care of the football when the game demands him to make a play. If the Irish play in command of the afternoon, they’ll win fairly easily. If they don’t, Navy will pounce and send the Irish packing. I expect that we’ll see a little bit of both, with Notre Dame prevailing on a healthy mix of confidence and desperation.

Notre Dame 31, Navy 20