Many actions in life can have unknown consequences. When you take a new job or move to a new place, the outcomes of your decisions are not nailed down to a single result. You can anticipate and plan for what might occur, but life has a way of paving its own path. However, when filling out a voting ballot for a presidential election, there are only two real possible outcomes: either the Democratic nominee wins or the Republican nominee does. The structure of the two-party system is conducive to forcing the electorate between two candidates, even when they don’t represent the vast majority of what voters believe. Given the nature of elections, it is possible to make predictions about what will happen after the winner of the 2024 presidential race is announced in November.
The first possible outcome is that Kamala Harris will be elected president. In the first few hours after the announcement, prominent headlines such as “The United States elects first female president” will start to run as history is being made. However, given the result of the 2020 election, I also believe there might be contention for this outcome. The capital insurrection marked a severe low point and breakdown in the American political system. When large groups of people grow so heavily distrusting of a government entity, proper political functioning can no longer be maintained. This is especially true when these groups of people are encouraged and have their beliefs affirmed by Donald Trump, who, to them, serves as a symbol of truth and reform. I believe in this election, if Harris wins, Trump supporters will return to the steps of the Capitol, citing election fraud once more. I do believe that preparations will be made for this possibility with police put in place to prevent a repeat of the 2020 election, but some altercation seems to be inevitable.
At the moment of writing, it is unknown which way Congress will flip. If Harris is elected and receives a democratically controlled Congress, there will likely be the rapid introduction of bills and reforms as she takes advantage of her temporary political control. However, if it is a split Congress or Republican-controlled Congress, Republicans will likely stonewall any bills Harris attempts to introduce or pass. Harris has claimed that one day, she would use executive orders to implement her plan for an opportunity economy. Harris says she would also focus on reinstating stating abortion rights. However, she would have to have control over both houses of Congress, which is unlikely during her first two years.
The second possible outcome is that Trump will win the presidency. In this case, I believe there will be far less contention of the election results. Since the 2020 election, faith in the democratic system and its authenticity have become more aligned with the Democratic party. Harris will likely concede to Trump, and there will be no insurrection against the government. The transition of power will also likely go much smoother than in the 2020 election, with Harris and Biden meeting with Trump and Melania to welcome them back to the White House. Trump has made many claims about what he plans on doing once elected to office, beginning with closing the southern border on day one. I also believe that with the announcement of Trump’s victory, there will be a mass exodus of people from and within the United States. It is possible to see people moving to more liberal states where access to services like abortion is more readily available. It is also possible that people will leave the United States entirely, as some people did in the 2016 election.
Trump’s age is another factor to consider. The former president is currently 78, and although his age does not appear to be an issue at the moment, it could become one in the future. It is possible that the American electorate will see the Trump presidency in the same way they saw Biden. As Trump ages and possibly begins to slow down, people may start viewing him as unfit for office.
Ultimately, despite the knowledge that the November election can only result in two outcomes, the results will have wide-scale implications. Therefore, it is crucial that no matter who wins, decorum is maintained, and the democratic process is allowed to continue without contention.
Declan is a surviving biochemistry major at the University of Notre Dame. He is usually trying to figure out how to work the printer. Contact at dburke7@nd.edu.
