As the country goes to the polls this week to vote in the 2024 presidential election, a poll conducted by The Observer finds that Notre Dame students favor Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. According to the poll, Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 54.2% of Notre Dame students’ votes, compared to 38.3% for former President Donald Trump.
The Observer poll also identified trends among the student body suggestive of how the country is voting. A majority of female voters at Notre Dame support Harris while male voters are more likely to pull the lever for Trump. Harris also took a larger share of unaffiliated voters. For students whose most important issues are immigration and the economy, however, Trump is the favored pick.
National poll averages show the race neck and neck as the campaign comes to a close.
The Observer poll suggests Trump garnering a larger share of Notre Dame students than previous elections. According to a Institute for Social Concerns (ISC) report on the 2016 election, 59% of undergraduate and graduate students voted for Hillary Clinton, while 22.2% supported Donald Trump. The ISC’s subsequent report on the 2020 election found that 67.3% of Notre Dame graduate and undergraduate students voted for Joe Biden, while 27.8% voted for Trump.
Harris’ lead at Notre Dame is also smaller than other campuses across the country. A nationwide poll of 18-to-29-year-olds conducted by the Harvard Institute of Politics found Harris leading Trump 64% to 32%.
Observer surveys 1,205 students in highest turnout poll
The Observer’s election poll surveyed 1,205 students between Oct. 28-31. Respondents submitted anonymous ballots in person via Google Forms, conducted in both dining halls and the Duncan Student Center. NetIDs were collected separately to prevent individuals from voting twice and verify that students were actual Notre Dame students.
Throughout the week of data collection, results were stable with campaigns consistently receiving the same share of votes. Polling 1,205 students in person allowed for the poll to be precise within a margin of error of 2.8% at a 95% confidence interval, more predictive than most national and statewide polls.
The Observer’s poll follows two other polls of the campus on the presidential election released in September, one from Scholastic/NDTV and another from The Irish Rover. The Scholastic/NDTV poll found Harris leading at 57.4%, surveying 237 respondents.
The Rover’s poll found that students favor Trump, having surveyed 705 respondents. Their results showed an effective tie within the margin of error, with Trump taking 48% and Harris at 46%. The Rover’s poll was advertised to political science classes, dorm group chats and “nonpartisan” clubs. The Rover confirmed that these clubs included Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) and Students for Child Oriented Policy (SCOP), as well as BridgeND and Notre Dame Speech and Debate.
“Regardless of the specific results of the various polls, they all point to the same conclusion: Since 2020, in just four years, Notre Dame’s student body has shifted significantly in a conservative direction,” Rover editor-in-chief Michael Canady wrote in a statement to The Observer.
Women favor Harris while men favor Trump, following national trend
The Observer’s poll shows men favor Donald Trump and JD Vance, with 47.6% votes, compared to 42.2% for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Among women, however, Harris leads decisively, securing 68.8% votes to Trump’s 26.7%.
The gender divide in presidential preference parallels national data from a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, which found men moving toward Trump by an 11-point margin, while women continue to back Democrats, giving Harris a 16-point edge.
When it came to the different academic colleges, Harris held a majority in all of them, apart from the Mendoza College of Business, where 48% of students supported Trump, compared to 44% for Harris. Harris was most popular in the Keough School of Global Affairs, where she held the support of 76% of respondents.
Harris and Walz are buoyed by strong backing from Democrats and independents. Of Harris’ total support, 57% comes from Democrats and a significant 37% from unaffiliated students. In comparison, Trump’s support is highly concentrated within the Republican base, making up 72% of his total backing, while just 20% of his support comes from unaffiliated students.
Independent voters appear to be breaking more favorably toward Kamala Harris — the vice president won 64.5% of the unaffiliated vote. Interestingly, 9.2% of self-identified Republicans reported they were voting for Harris compared to only 2.3% of self-identified Democrats who reported voting for Trump.
Only 10.4% of Notre Dame students affirmatively think the country is going in the right direction. Nearly half think it is going in the wrong direction, while 41.2% are unsure.
Students identified their priority issues in this race, with abortion and immigration topping the list.
Harris leads narrowly with students concerned about foreign policy, with larger leads on other issues. Trump leads with voters concerned about the economy, as well as immigration.
For Notre Dame men whose marked their most important issue as abortion, Trump is the favored candidate at 50.6% to 28% for Harris. For women, those who prioritize abortion back Harris at 70.6% to Trump’s 27.3%.
Female students who say the economy is their most important issue swung for Trump, garnering 48.4% to Harris at 45.2%. 61.9% of men who say the economy is their most important issue back Trump, with 30.2% supporting Harris.
Harris enjoyed her highest level of support among Black students, while Trump’s highest level of support was among Asian students. Students of all races, however, favored Harris over Trump.
College Republicans, College Democrats react to results
In an interview with The Observer, Elliot Anderson, president of College Republicans, said he put less emphasis on the importance of polls to measure public support.
“I don’t look too much into polling, but I would say that, as College Republican president, what I've seen here is that people are more conservative than I've ever seen or heard of on a college campus, and I think that's promising for my club,” he said.
Elliott Anderson expressed concern about the possibility of non-citizen respondents skewing results towards Kamala Harris. The Observer did not explicitly ask whether respondents were citizens, but did ask if they were registered to vote in the election.
Of the respondents who said they were registered to vote, making up roughly 89.8% of respondents, Harris still led Trump 55.0% to 38.4%, roughly the same margin as among all respondents.
Co-president of College Democrats Olivia Anderson said she was not surprised by the results of the poll, citing high enthusiasm in the club.
“We have had record turnout … This is the most amount of people consistently showing up to meetings,” she said. “So, while not surprising, we're definitely happy to see the results.”
