Noah Cahill
After a comfortable, 35-14 victory over Virginia on Senior Day, Notre Dame is now two wins away from the College Football Playoff. If they get a bit of help, the Irish could be playing at home in the postseason in late December. The first step involves a trip to Yankee Stadium for a primetime matchup with an undefeated, No. 18-ranked Army team, arguably the greatest test they will have faced since Texas A&M in Week One.
The Black Knights fit the traditional mold of most military academy football teams. They run a smash-mouth brand of football powered by the triple-option rushing attack. Quarterback Bryson Daily leads the charge, carrying it 174 times for a team-high 1,062 yards and 21 touchdowns, putting him first in the nation in rushing touchdowns amongst quarterbacks and second amongst all players. Kanye Udoh picks up the majority of the remaining carries, managing 856 yards on 128 attempts with nine touchdowns. In a very limited passing attack, only two receivers, Casey Reynolds and Noah Short, tally double-digit receptions, providing 11 receptions each for 317 and 259 yards respectively. The unit is a model of sound execution, turning it over only three times all season while committing the sixth-fewest penalties of any team in the nation. On the other side of the ball, Army has been a statistically dominant defense albeit against a strength of schedule ranked outside of the top 100. Their 273.9 yards per game ranks fifth in the nation, and they boast the best red-zone defense in the country, stifling teams within 20 yards of the end zone on 10 of their 20 trips.
Despite the strong statistical profile and record, Notre Dame should handily beat this Army team. Leaning on physical mismatches upfront, look for the defensive line to generate negative plays on early downs. On offense, senior quarterback Riley Leonard’s dual-threat ability should prove to be a tougher test for the Black Knights’ red-zone defense. If Notre Dame gets this team behind the sticks and forces it into passing situations on third down while finishing its drives, I see a comfortable victory. Army won’t beat itself in the fashion that Navy did and will put forth a formidable effort. However, I see Notre Dame pulling away in the second half and winning by at least a couple of scores.
Army 14, Notre Dame 35
Matthew Crow
You couldn’t ask for a much better Shamrock Series matchup than this, with Notre Dame and Army heading to Yankee Stadium for a primetime duel while boasting a combined record of 18-1 as well as two of the nation’s top three scoring defenses. The deciding factor on Saturday could be how well the Irish are able to contain Army’s dominant rushing attack, as the Black Knights have averaged 334 yards on the ground this season, over 70 yards more than any other team in the country. Army will look to control the tempo like it did in its last outing against North Texas, when it ate up much of the second half with a grinding 21-play, 94-yard scoring drive that lasted 13 minutes and 54 seconds. But Notre Dame’s run defense has been just as impressive all year. Given the one-dimensionality of Army’s offense, it will be crucial for the Irish to get stops in early-down situations to push the Black Knights behind the sticks and force them out of their comfort zone. Notre Dame has been as good as it gets in terms of capitalizing on its opponents’ mistakes, tied for first nationally with 25 forced turnovers this season.
Offensively, the Irish will look to continue building on their late-season renaissance. Notre Dame still leans heavily on its dynamic run game but has reached new heights on offense over the past few weeks by slowly, but surely unlocking a dangerous passing attack. Riley Leonard has thrown for more than 200 yards in four of his last five appearances after failing to reach that total a single time in his first five games with the Irish.
I don’t see Saturday’s game being quite as much of a low-scoring defensive struggle as the stats might suggest, and while Army will provide a true test on both sides of the ball — especially playing fresh on the heels of a bye week — I think it will struggle to keep up with the Irish. The Black Knights haven’t faced a team anywhere near the caliber of Notre Dame, and perhaps most importantly, the two teams seem to be trending in opposite directions as of late. Army posted its two lowest scoring outputs of the season in its last two games, tallying just 34 total points against Air Force and North Texas after surpassing that number in all but one of its first seven outings.
Meanwhile, the Irish have been an unstoppable force since the calendar flipped to October — outscoring opponents 218-51 — and I don’t see them letting up now with just two wins standing between them and a potential home game in the College Football Playoff. With both teams’ Playoff hopes on the line, Leonard will rack up three touchdowns for the fourth game in a row to lead the Irish to a 10th win for the seventh time in the past eight years.
Army 14, Notre Dame 31
Madeline Ladd
Notre Dame’s path to a College Football Playoffs berth continues as it keeps winning and moving up in the rankings. This week’s bracket projects the Irish would host a first-round game against Alabama, but the journey is far from over as they face the undefeated, ranked Army Black Knights. Army (9-0) is experiencing its best season since 1949, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, who has scored 21 rushing touchdowns. The Black Knights live and die by the run game. While their strength of schedule (124th nationally) leaves room for skepticism, this disciplined team has dominated opponents, trailing only once this season against North Texas last week.
For Notre Dame, the path to victory lies in offensive efficiency. Last week the Irish had too many three-and-outs coupled with drive-killing penalties and senseless dropped passes. This cannot happen against an Army team that will grind out the clock with long drives to limit the amount of Irish possessions. Riley Leonard must stay sharp, utilizing senior tight end Mitchell Evans and capitalizing on the dominance of junior running back Jadarian Price and sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love on the ground.
Defensively, the Irish will have to be focused and mind their gaps, not overreacting to Army’s deceptive option attack. Facing a service academy can be a challenge, and this is a good Army team that won’t limit itself like Navy did with turnovers. Notre Dame’s ability to limit explosive plays will reveal whether or not Army is really as good as advertised. While this matchup will likely be closer than comfortable, expect the Irish to edge out a hard-fought victory and keep their playoff dreams alive.
Army, 17 Notre Dame, 31
Tyler Reidy
This feels so much like the end of the 2018 regular season. Notre Dame needs two wins to make the College Football Playoff — one against a surprising top-25 team at Yankee Stadium and another against a rival that hasn’t played well but will be frisky. Army is the new Syracuse, and USC is, well, still USC.
Six years ago, that stretch played out with Notre Dame blowing out and nearly shutting out the Orange before sneaking out of Los Angeles with an uncomfortable defeat of the Trojans. On paper, these next two weeks should unfold similarly. The Irish annihilated another ranked service academy, Navy, just under a month ago and are 6-12 against the spread in their last 18 visits to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (credit to Observer alum J.J. Post for finding this stat).
So what makes this Army team different from the upset-minded Navy squad Notre Dame saw at MetLife Stadium? Not much, actually. I think Army has a better quarterback in Bryson Daily, but it’s hard to evaluate his terrific statistics relative to this game. The Black Knights have not yet faced a defense ranking top-50 in the nation for expected points added per play. Notre Dame’s defense ranks inside the top 15. Army has not yet opposed an offense ranking top-75 in the nation for the same statistic. Notre Dame occupies a spot in the top 15 there, too.
It will take a near-perfect start for Army to hang around in this football game. All Navy needed was a couple of early turnovers to self-destruct and lose by 37 against the Irish. If Notre Dame can strike fear in the Black Knights with early aggression on defense and a run-first, “punch you in the mouth” drive in the opening quarter, this won’t be a close one.
Army 9, Notre Dame 34
