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Friday, Nov. 29, 2024
The Observer

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Football beat picks: Notre Dame vs. USC

The Irish have claimed five of the last six matchups against the Trojans

Noah Cahill

A nine-game win streak has put Notre Dame in a win-and-in situation on rivalry weekend. Should they overcome USC, the Irish will play a College Football Playoff game in Notre Dame Stadium. The Trojans have sputtered to a disappointing 6-5 record this season, but recently secured bowl eligibility behind a pair of wins against Nebraska and UCLA. Head coach Lincoln Riley is known for his ability to call an elite offense. However, now on its second quarterback after only averaging 29 points per game, USC has not impressed on that side of the ball. Considering Notre Dame’s dominant defense, I have little doubt in its ability to handle this unit, particularly in the passing attack, as the Irish boast the top-ranked pass efficiency defense in the country.

Playing at home against your biggest rival usually means throwing the record out the window. With that being said, USC’s recent victories to secure postseason football could come with a sigh of relief that may have its foot off the gas at the end of a mediocre season. With everything to play for, I expect Marcus Freeman to have his guys more than prepared to take care of business on Saturday afternoon. I see the Trojans hanging around in the first half before breaking under the pressure of this Irish defense, allowing Notre Dame to pull away late. The Irish will be in the CFP this season, taking down their rivals en route to getting there.

Notre Dame 28, USC 14

Matthew Crow

On the heels of nine consecutive wins, a trip to Los Angeles to face off with USC is all that stands between Notre Dame and the College Football Playoff. The Trojans have scuffled their way to a disappointing 6-5 record, and much of that has come down to their struggles in closing out games, as their five defeats have come by a total of just 19 points. In recent years, USC’s elite offense has been able to make up for its defensive issues, but that unit hasn’t been able to shoulder the load in the same way this season, as the Trojans have already made a quarterback change while averaging a relatively pedestrian 29 points per game. That doesn’t bode well against an Irish defense that has locked down opponents all year, being particularly stingy through the air — boasting the nation’s top passing defense — which is where USC has done most of its damage.

I don’t see the Trojans suffering another last-second loss on Saturday because I think Notre Dame is playing at too high of a level on both sides of the ball to let it get to that point. The Irish defense has forced more turnovers than any team in the country and will make several key plays against USC, and Notre Dame’s steady, efficient offense will be ready to capitalize on those mistakes.

Last fall, the Irish had all the answers in this rivalry matchup, dominating from start to finish in a four-touchdown victory over the previously undefeated Trojans. On Saturday afternoon, it will be Notre Dame that has all the momentum and motivation on its side in what is truly a must-win game. USC will battle as it looks to close out the regular season on a high note with a third straight victory, but I see the Irish pulling away before this one reaches the fourth quarter.

Notre Dame 35, USC 14

Annika Herko

The latest CFP Ranking has Notre Dame as the No. 7 seed, which Irish fans shouldn’t be excited about. Penn State is still sitting at No. 6 despite barely defeating Minnesota last week. If the Irish can move into that spot, they’ll play an easier matchup in the first round and, if they win, the second round as well.

Notre Dame has to be merciless with how it scores and win by as much as possible. The Irish have allowed only 15 touchdowns this season, tied for fourth least in FBS. USC’s offense is nothing extraordinary, and even with all the key injuries on Notre Dame’s defense, the Irish should be in a good position to keep the Trojans frustrated with their production all afternoon.

Notre Dame 55, USC 10

Madeline Ladd

Some of the greatest rivalry games are being played this week, and USC vs. Notre Dame is right on the list. The No. 5 Irish trek off to SoCal this holiday weekend to hopefully solidify a home game in the College Football Playoff. Win and they are in. 

After pounding then-No. 19 Army in a display of physicality, Marcus Freeman's squad is clicking. Its dominance on both sides of the ball is a promising sign as it faces a Trojan team that's underperformed but not to be overlooked.

USC’s season has been disappointing, but the Trojans have shown some resilience in recent weeks under new starting quarterback Jayden Maiava. All of their losses have been by no more than a touchdown, including a 33-30 overtime heartbreaker against Penn State.

While Maiava has sparked back-to-back wins, the Trojans' offense — ranked 88th in rushing but 14th in passing — matches poorly against Notre Dame's secondary. On defense, USC’s struggles are obvious, especially against the pass, where it ranks 93rd nationally.

Notre Dame's key to victory lies in efficiency, and luckily the Irish are playing their best football of the season. With the Jeremiyah Love-Jadarian Price duo thriving in the run game and Riley Leonard spreading the ball effectively, the Irish should be able to control the scene. Special teams execution will also be critical.

Expect a hard-fought battle, but Notre Dame’s superior depth should carry it to victory and cement its playoff bid. 

Notre Dame 38, USC 17

Tyler Reidy

It’s a shame Notre Dame and USC haven’t played a game with both teams in College Playoff Contention since 2017. With the field expanded to 12 teams and the Irish ranked with the Trojans inside the top 15 to start the year, it seemed that 2024 would end with a blockbuster in Los Angeles. Notre Dame has held up its end of the bargain at 10-1. USC, at 6-5, not so much.

Still, I see a lot to look forward to with Saturday’s regular-season finale. Of course, this is one of college football’s finest rivalries, and the last two years of Caleb Williams bringing USC back to brief relevance has revamped the animosity around the annual game. In 2022, he sealed the deal on a Heisman Trophy against Notre Dame in the Coliseum. Last season, the Irish put him in a torture chamber and beat the Trojans by 28 in South Bend.

Second, Notre Dame will actually face a somewhat competent passing offense again. That hasn’t happened since Sept. 28 against Louisville, the last time the Irish won a game by less than three scores. Led by Xavier Watts, Notre Dame’s secondary played a starring role in last year’s demolition of USC. I would expect a few more key plays against the Trojan air attack on Saturday.

Finally, USC enters the weekend with some momentum — at least, relative to the suboptimal standards of its 2024 season. Last week, they followed up a win against Nebraska by defeating crosstown rival UCLA, 19-13, to clinch bowl eligibility. Historically speaking, Notre Dame doesn’t win big in Los Angeles — not even the championship contenders of 2012 and 2018. The Irish haven’t won by double-digit points at USC since 2000, but this isn’t just another Notre Dame team. This is the hottest team in college football, and it’s going to buck that trend and roll into the postseason on Saturday.

Notre Dame 35, USC 17