After cruising to a 35-14 victory over Virginia on Senior Day, Notre Dame prepares to enter the final stretch of its regular season schedule, and arguably its toughest test since Texas A&M in the penultimate game against No. 18 Army. The Black Knights are undefeated on the season, putting them in contention for the final spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff field, reserved for the best Group of 5 team in the nation. The primetime matchup in Yankee Stadium is a CFP elimination game for both teams. Here are a few keys to victory for Notre Dame in the must-win game.
No. 1: Execute in the red zone
Army’s defense has been formidable all season, albeit against a weak strength of schedule. Its top-five ranked unit has shut down the run, allowing 82.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks third in the nation. Most notably, the Black Knights have the top-ranked red-zone defense, allowing only 10 scores between eight touchdowns and two field goals on their opponents’ 20 trips.
However, Notre Dame and Riley Leonard pose a different kind of threat in that area of the field. Leonard’s dual-threat ability has been a weapon inside of 20 yards, with the senior quarterback scoring 10 of his 13 rushing touchdowns from inside the red zone. He forms a one-two punch with sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love, who has 12 touchdowns of his own, including a streak of scoring in every single game. In recent weeks, offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has turned more frequently to the run-pass option as well, using the threat of his backfield to set up one-on-one connections with wide receivers.
The added layer has handcuffed opposing defenses and contributed to an efficient 87.2 red-zone scoring percentage. The Irish offense has put points on the board in 34 of its 39 trips with 30 touchdowns and four field goals. Should it be able to finish its drives against this stout Army unit, I see a comfortable victory on the horizon. If the Black Knights hold strong, however, this game could get a whole lot closer.
No. 2: Win on early downs defensively
The cliche of “winning in the trenches” is often beaten to death when discussing a team’s keys to victory, but its importance is undeniable in this matchup. Outside of committing an inexplicable six turnovers, the Navy offense was largely stifled due to Notre Dame’s sheer size advantage on the defensive line. Military academy football teams go into most matchups with Power 5 teams having to overcome this lofty obstacle.
If any team can, however, it would be this Army team, which has been near perfect with the execution of its triple-option offense all year. Averaging 334.9 rushing yards per game, it ranks first in the nation in rushing offense. Quarterback Bryson Daily leads the charge, carrying the football 174 times for a team-high 1,062 yards and 21 touchdowns, putting him first in the nation in rushing touchdowns amongst quarterbacks and second amongst all players, only behind Boise State running back and Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty. Kanye Udoh picks up the majority of the remaining carries, managing 856 yards on 128 attempts with nine touchdowns. In a very limited passing attack, only two receivers, Casey Reynolds and Noah Short, tally double-digit receptions, providing 11 receptions each for 317 and 259 yards respectively.
The Black Knights rarely make mistakes, with only three total turnovers and the sixth-fewest penalties per game in the nation. But this well-oiled machine has yet to face anything resembling this Notre Dame defense, especially up front. Graduate defensive tackle pairing Rylie Mills and Howard Cross III have been on a tear in recent weeks. After a slow start, Mills has logged six sacks in his last six games, and while he hasn’t had the same statistical production, Cross has also come into his own after appearing hampered by an offseason hamstring injury earlier in the season. While Cross missed the Virginia game after suffering an ankle injury against Florida State, he has been activated for the Army game, head coach Marcus Freeman describing his rest last week as a mere precaution.
His return is bad news for the Army offensive line. A key to its offensive success is staying ahead of the sticks on early downs to avoid passing scenarios, something it has been able to do at a high level. Army's 53.5 third-down conversion percentage ranks second in the nation, which will prove to be a key matchup against Notre Dame’s sixth-ranked third-down defense. The Irish have held teams to 28.9% on the decisive down. If their defensive line can dominate in the way that the matchup on paper suggests they should, creating negative plays on first and second-down runs, the Army offense should not have the same third-down success.
No. 3: Do not look past the game
After its victory over Virginia, Notre Dame has rattled off eight wins in a row. The Irish are two wins away from a guaranteed spot in the 12-team playoff field and with a little bit of help, will return to Notre Dame Stadium to host one of the first home playoff games in college football history. The lingering question during the Marcus Freeman tenure remains as to whether or not his team can handle success. Since the disaster against Northern Illinois, Freeman has made sure to show his team film of the infamous loss every week to remind them what it felt like to overlook a team and get punished for it. After staring down the barrel of elimination from playoff contention before October, his team has responded. The Irish open up as two-touchdown favorites and shouldn’t have trouble winning this game or the next one against a dejected 5-5 USC team.
But with every week that this team gets closer to hosting a playoff game, the outside noise gets louder and the expectations get higher. Walking into a historic Yankee Stadium in primetime, Notre Dame has to block it all out. Do that, and the Irish take a massive step closer to their ultimate goal.
