On Friday, the Mendoza College of Business welcomed Gerard Baker, the former editor-in-chief of the Wall Street Journal, to the Jordan Auditorium to discuss the results of last week’s election. The experienced reporter and columnist spoke on why the results of this election cycle are so significant and what caused the races to play out as they did.
The lecture is part of the Thomas H. Quinn Lecture Series, an annual event hosted by the University. Sponsored by alumnus and trustee John Jordan ‘69, he started the tradition as a tribute to his friend, who died in 2016. Thomas Quinn ‘69 served as the CEO of Jordan Industries Inc. and was a member of the 1966 national championship-winning football team.
“When he passed away, I tried to think about how I can honor him both as a great friend, as a business partner, but also as a very important Notre Dame benefactor and chairman of the Advisory Council,” Jordan said. “We came up with this idea of the Quinn lecture series. And I endowed it, forever, so you’re stuck with this forever.”
Baker, whose four daughters attended Notre Dame, said he considered it a great privilege to honor Quinn’s legacy with the lecture.
Heading into the election, the polls predicted the race was going to be decided by a very thin margin, and either candidate would be able to pull off a victory. However, on election night, Donald Trump won every swing state, the popular vote and improved his margins in the safest blue states.
“Trump won by advancing the Republican vote across the country,” Baker said. “His vote share went up from 2020 in 49 states out of 50 and the District of Columbia, the first president to have done that in 50 years.”
Even among voter groups that traditionally vote Democratic, the shift was pronounced. Trump made gains with all Hispanic voters, especially men, Black men, younger voters and women. According to Baker, these statistics reflect a much larger trend in American politics.
“Not only did he win a clear victory, he has reshaped the political elect, but the political geography and the political demographics of this country,” Baker said. “We are in the process of a major political realignment here, where the Republican Party is becoming an increasingly multi-ethnic party, particularly among working class voters and among the non-college educated.”
Although Trump deserves credit for his win, Baker noted it is sometimes more interesting to analyze the reasons for Vice President Kamala Harris’s defeat than it is to dissect Trump’s victory. The economy and immigration were the two major issues in the election, and ultimately, more people resonated with Trump’s message than with Harris’s.
“I think the bigger story here, and it's the reason behind this realignment that I talked about, is the Democrats have lost touch with their traditional voters, and they have become the party of the elites,” Baker said.
Baker cautioned against creating too strong of a link between the economy’s performance and the president.
“I’m the first to say that I don't think whoever is sitting in the Oval Office has that much influence over the economy, either way,” Baker said. “Some of the changes that are made under one president don’t actually become realized in economic benefit terms until the subsequent president.”
Matthew Hall, the event's moderator and a professor of Constitutional Studies at the University, noted the political landscape in America has become more and more polarized in recent elections.
“[The Harris campaign] is clearly showing extremist Democratic policies,” Hall said. “On the other hand, I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Donald Trump has said a few things that maybe could be called extremist.”
The audience laughed, and Baker agreed, citing Trump’s famous “They’re eating the dogs” quote as an example. However, Baker went on to say many of the alarming things Trump campaigned on in the past have merely been campaign tools, with the Republican Party overall remaining focused on the “kitchen-table” issues that resonate the most with voters.
“There are more and more Democrats, I think, who are starting to say, ‘we have to change,’ and ‘we can’t be the party that looks like it’s not on the side of ordinary people,’” Baker said. “But instead, campaigns focus on these kinds of niche issues that frankly are just out of the mainstream of America.”
Hall dedicated a portion of the discussion to the fact that both of Trump’s electoral victories have come when running against female candidates. Baker, who immigrated from the United Kingdom, noted that Margaret Thatcher was elected Prime Minister in 1979, and other countries, including Italy and Germany, have had successful woman leaders.
“I think it probably is true that women do have to clear a higher bar in many orders of life,” he said, noting major parties likely will not be dissuaded from nominating a woman, especially a more moderate candidate. “It would be wrong to conclude that the reason Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris lost was because they were women.”
The lecture wrapped up with a look forward at American politics in the next two to four years. In the past, landslide elections like those in the 1930s and 1980s have helped the losing party to reflect and change, usually bringing them back towards the center.
In contrast, recent elections have been extremely closely called, which could pose a problem and result in increased polarization. However, Baker remains optimistic.
“This is the greatest country in the world, and it has succeeded because it’s remained true to those values [of democracy, freedom of expression and free market capitalism] through endless, endless crises,” Baker said. “I have faith in the resilience, the creativity, the capabilities and the basic decency of the American people to see it through.”
