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Friday, Dec. 20, 2024
The Observer

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Football beat picks: Notre Dame vs. Indiana

The Irish and Hoosiers will meet for the first time since 1991 on Friday

Noah Cahill

The time has finally come. After three weeks of eager anticipation, the much-awaited 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off, and Notre Dame will play the first-ever game under the new format in its stadium on Friday night. It is an exciting time in South Bend. After rattling off 10 consecutive wins to finish the regular season and punch their ticket to the playoff, the Irish enter the matchup with No. 10 seed Indiana as a little over a touchdown favorite. The game now comes in light of head coach Marcus Freeman’s contract extension, locking the third-year head coach down for the following six years at one of the highest-paid numbers of any coach in the country. New athletic coordinator Pete Bevacqua has expressed being “maniacally obsessed with winning” and has put his money where his mouth is. Freeman will hope to consolidate his new raise with a first postseason win.

Turning to the field, injury news for Notre Dame captures the headlines as star sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love and former All-American graduate defensive tackle Howard Cross III will both play in the game, two of the most pivotal contributors on either side of the ball. Love will power a three-headed monster in the backfield alongside Riley Leonard and Jadarian Price, the three running behind an offensive line playing its best football at the right time. They will face the No. 1 rushing defense in the country in the Hoosiers, a group that has controlled the line of scrimmage and pressured the quarterback at a high level all season. They have allowed only 70.8 yards per game on the ground albeit against a relatively weak schedule of opponents. I see the matchup in the trenches as defining the game, particularly for a Notre Dame team that will look to establish an early lead and control the game script with their rushing attack and staunch defense. Cross will join his graduate student partner in crime Rylie Mills to set the tone up front for a dominant Irish defense, which I contend to be the best unit on the field in this game. I don’t see Indiana moving the ball effectively in this game. The Irish secondary proved somewhat gettable against a talented USC wide receiver corps, especially without projected first-round junior cornerback Benjamin Morrison, but it won’t be tested in the same way by this Hoosier passing attack, which tends to operate more in the quick game than pushing the ball downfield as the Trojans did. 

Powered by a home crowd which is shaping up to be one of the strongest Notre Dame Stadium has seen since last year’s Ohio State game, the Irish will take control of this game in the second half. I predict a competitive first half with some nervy moments and a potential early Indiana lead, but the game will always be there for Notre Dame to take. Over time, the Irish rush attack will wear down the Hoosier front, as formidable as they have proven to be this year, and who I believe to be the tougher and more talented team will win. 

Indiana 21, Notre Dame 35

SMU-Penn State pick: Penn State

Clemson-Texas pick: Clemson

Tennessee-Ohio State pick: Ohio State

Matthew Crow

After 10 consecutive wins to close out the regular season, the Irish are right where they hoped to be at the start of the year — playing December football in South Bend with a spot in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals on the line. Notre Dame and Indiana have been two of college football’s most dominant teams all year, with both teams ranking inside the top six nationally in scoring offense and defense. The defining matchup of the game could be a strength-on-strength duel between the Hoosiers’ top-ranked rushing defense and Notre Dame’s always-dangerous ground attack. With Indiana likely keying in on slowing down the Irish’s outstanding backfield duo of sophomore Jeremiyah Love and junior Jadarian Price (who combined for 210 yards and two touchdowns on just 25 carries in their last time out against USC), Notre Dame will have to find success through the air, and senior quarterback Riley Leonard — who was excellent during the back half of the regular-season slate — will need to be at his absolute best on Friday night in order for the Irish to get any separation from the Hoosiers and prevent a low-scoring slugfest.

The other side of the ball is where I think the Irish have the biggest edge. Indiana has impressed offensively, averaging 43 points per game on the year, but has struggled to find that same explosiveness against some of the best defenses on its schedule. While splitting a pair of November games against Michigan and Ohio State, the Hoosiers scored just 35 total points. Notre Dame’s defense didn’t have its best outing against USC but stepped up to make key plays down the stretch, and I trust that defensive coordinator Al Golden will have his unit ready to roll after nearly a month off to prepare for everything that Indiana has to offer. Given the Irish’s inconsistency in the kicking game and Marcus Freeman’s recent willingness to play extremely aggressively, the game’s outcome could hinge on a few critical fourth-and-short situations for Notre Dame. Leonard and Co. have thrived in those scenarios all year long. With home-field advantage on their side in what should be an electric atmosphere under the lights at Notre Dame Stadium, I see the Irish continuing to play their brand of well-rounded football to earn a hard-fought two-possession win and set up a New Year’s Day showdown with Georgia.

Indiana 24, Notre Dame 35

SMU-Penn State pick: Penn State

Clemson-Texas pick: Clemson

Tennessee-Ohio State pick: Ohio State

Annika Herko

Indiana is like no other team Notre Dame has faced this year. The Hoosiers are talented, and they have experience in big games. No one really expected Indiana to have the season it did, but the Hoosiers were successful because of their up-tempo offense and quarterback Kurtis Rourke’s ability to get the ball out to his receivers quickly. Having graduate defensive tackle Howard Cross III back should help give the Irish defense an edge, but the Irish won’t be able to keep the Hoosiers out of the end zone like they have with many other opponents this season.

On offense, this has to be the game of Riley Leonard’s life. Against Ohio State, the Hoosiers keyed in on the run, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they used the same strategy this week given Jeremiyah Love’s season. Leonard and the receiving corps come out of the locker room ready to throw deep. The Irish win after an initially back-and-forth game by staying tough in the second half. 

Indiana 21, Notre Dame 35

SMU-Penn State pick: Penn State

Clemson-Texas pick: Texas

Tennessee-Ohio State pick: Ohio State

Madeline Ladd

Friday night, Notre Dame will make history as the first college campus to host a College Football Playoff game. The in-state showdown between the seventh seeded Irish and the 10th seeded Hoosiers will be a battle of contrasts, pitting Indiana’s dynamic offense against Notre Dame’s dominant defense. With nothing to lose, Indiana is likely to play aggressively. The Irish must maintain the sharp focus they’ve shown since their loss to NIU, avoid costly penalties and turnovers and execute on special teams.

Indiana, riding high after its best regular season in decades under National Coach of the Year Curt Cignetti, boasts the nation’s second-ranked scoring offense (43.3 points per game). Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, a pocket passer with a nation-leading 181.3 pass efficiency rating, could pose a significant challenge for Notre Dame’s defense. The Hoosiers also feature a strong ground game, with Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton each surpassing 600 rushing yards with a combined 22 touchdowns. However, Indiana’s offense will face a stern test against Notre Dame’s ninth-ranked scoring defense (13.58 PPG allowed), bolstered by the return of Howard Cross III to the defensive line.

On the other side, Indiana’s top-ranked run defense will aim to stifle the Irish rushing attack. However, their strength is questionable, having faced only one top-60 rushing offense this season in Ohio State. Riley Leonard will be key in exploiting Indiana’s defensive gaps with smart decision-making and timely runs.

Weather could play a factor, with wind gusts favoring a ground game that suits Notre Dame. 

Indiana hasn't won in South Bend since 1898. Give me the Irish to the Sugar Bowl to take on Georgia.

Indiana 24, Notre Dame 31

SMU-Penn State pick: Penn State

Clemson-Texas pick: Texas

Tennessee-Ohio State pick: Tennessee 

Tyler Reidy

I’m just glad it’s finally gameday. All of the black uniform discourse among Notre Dame fans and social media dunking between Irish and Hoosier fans can give way to an epic in-state battle in The House that Rockne Built.

Both teams mostly plowed through their regular-season schedules, entering the postseason with two of college football’s top three scoring margins. Indiana’s transfer-fueled offense just had a 66-point field day against Purdue but looked uninspiring the week prior against Ohio State, the only high-level team Indiana has faced this season. On the other side, Notre Dame’s run-first offensive attack with the three-headed monster of Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price hasn’t scored less than 30 points in almost three months. Both teams also enter Friday with phenomenal defenses, Indiana’s better against the run and Notre Dame’s harsher through the air.

As I outlined in the keys to victory article, turnover margin and offensive comfort will largely decide Friday’s game. The Irish and Hoosiers each take care of the football, traverse the field efficiently on offense and play an opportunistic defensive game. Any disruptions from takeaways, pressure or crowd noise will play a significant role in determining Georgia’s opponent in the Sugar Bowl. I’ve also got my eye on Friday night’s red-zone play. Indiana scores at a higher rate than anyone in the country inside the 20-yard line but doesn’t defend that area nearly as well. Notre Dame keeps opponents off the board in the red zone — if they can make it there — but has struggled to score points there because of its nagging issues in the kicking game.

Notre Dame needs a fast start. If the game remains close, the Irish will have to contend with sending an unreliable kicker out to take the tying or winning attempt. Fortunately for them, I don’t believe the Hoosiers have the ammunition nor the regular-season pedigree to hang with a focused and energized Irish team. They had their chance to prove the opposite against Ohio State and lost by 23 points. Indiana made for a great story this season, but its two-touchdown loss in South Bend will send Notre Dame on to Sugar Bowl.

Indiana 20, Notre Dame 34

SMU-Penn State pick: Penn State

Clemson-Texas pick: Clemson

Tennessee-Ohio State pick: Ohio State