With a 49-35 win over rival USC in the final game of the regular season, Notre Dame finished 2024 on a 10-game win streak at 11-1 for the year. The win punched a ticket to the College Football Playoff, where the Irish are set to host a first-round game in Notre Dame Stadium for the first time in school history. Following a wild weekend of conference championship matchups, the Irish slotted into the No. 7 seed, setting up a matchup with No. 10 Indiana in South Bend on Friday night, Dec. 20, the first playoff game of the 12-team era. Texas’ loss in the SEC Championship handed Georgia the No. 2 seed, the 11-2 Longhorns falling to the No. 5 spot. Behind a competitive loss against No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten championship, 11-2 Penn State fell to No. 6. Despite the extra loss, however, both teams remained above the 11-1 Irish, who did not play a conference championship game.
While probabilities for the five and six seeds were higher for Notre Dame heading into the final weekend, the Irish still left with a favorable matchup in their stadium, which is more than they could have asked for back in September after collapsing against Northern Illinois. They opened up as 7.5-point favorites over the Hoosiers. Should they get past their in-state opponents, they will travel to New Orleans to face No. 2 seed Georgia in the Sugar Bowl as part of the CFP quarterfinal. But how confident should Irish fans be in round one?
Cautious optimism. This defines the mindset entering most Notre Dame games this season, especially after NIU. Once again, as they have been throughout a weak regular-season slate, the Irish expect to win and win somewhat comfortably. They face an 11-1 Hoosiers team that has been the Cinderella story of the college football season. After being introduced as head coach just over a year ago, Curt Cignetti has transformed one of the losingest programs in the nation into a playoff team. Picked in the preseason to finish 17th of 18 teams in an expanded and talented field of Big Ten teams, Indiana blew all expectations out of the water.
This was largely the result of Cignetti’s accelerated rebuild approach which capitalized on the rapidly evolving college football landscape. The addition of 31 new players through the transfer portal and increased NIL funding powered the team to 11 wins despite their preseason over-under total being set at 5.5. But another key aspect of his approach was the choice of a more favorable regular-season schedule, which ranks 67th in ESPN’s Power Index, the second weakest amongst teams in the playoff field barring only Boise State. The Hoosiers are without a win against a currently ranked team, and their only ranked opponent, No. 8 Ohio State, throttled them 38-15. Despite the incredible strides they have taken as a program, there is a clear talent gap between them and Notre Dame.
This is not to say that the game should be a cakewalk. Indiana has the potential to be a matchup problem, boasting the best rushing defense in the nation. But they haven’t seen the three-headed monster in the backfield of senior quarterback Riley Leonard, sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love and junior running back Jadarian Price, who have looked more dangerous by the week behind a constantly improving offensive line. Despite exiting the USC game in the third quarter, Love is set to return at full strength, which is massive news for the Irish. On the other side of the ball and arguably just as important, graduate defensive tackle Howard Cross III, who had been sidelined the previous three games, is also set to play. His return will be vital to bolstering both the Irish run defense and pass rush. Before his injury, the graduate student pairing of him and Rylie Mills wreaked havoc on opposing offensive lines, the two combining for eight sacks in six games after a slow start to the season.
The performance of the secondary in their first real test of the season against a strong USC passing attack was a bit concerning. The injury to junior and projected first-round corner Benjamin Morrison appeared far more glaring as sophomore Christian Gray was picked on all day in one-on-one coverage. However, Gray responded at the vital moment to stifle USC’s attempt at a game-tying fourth-quarter drive with a 99-yard pick-six, and freshman Leonard Moore held up well on the other side of him all game. The safety duo of graduate student Xavier Watts and sophomore Adon Shuler continues to prove itself among the nation's best. Watts delivered another highlight moment against USC with a game-sealing 100-yard pick-six, coming just one drive after Gray’s pivotal play. Indiana’s offense will pose a legitimate threat, but this Irish defense remains the most dominant unit in the game and should set the tone from the beginning. While I see Indiana keeping the contest close, the defense will generate the necessary game script to lean on them in the run game. Eventually, the Hoosiers will break.
After the first round, I believe Notre Dame has as good a path as anyone to the national championship. No. 2 Georgia is not the same fear-inducing juggernaut of old, and the injury to starting quarterback Carson Beck further stresses an already underwhelming offense. The Bulldogs have the talent to hit as high of a ceiling as any team in the field, but I once again view this Irish defensive unit as the best in the matchup. The formula for Notre Dame would remain the same: get into a good game script early and run the ball. The Bulldogs have been vulnerable at times against the ground game, showing that vulnerability against a mobile quarterback in Georgia Tech’s Haynes King, who helped power the Yellow Jackets to 260 rushing yards in their eight-overtime thriller.
Riley Leonard is another level of rushing threat. I could see him finding similar success en route to an Irish win. That would leave them with one of Boise State, Penn State or SMU, all extremely enticing matchups. Boise State and SMU rank bottom-three in strength of schedule among the playoff field, and Penn State’s only ranked win came against No. 20 Illinois. Their resume is also marked by several narrow escapes, including an overtime comeback against common opponent USC and a one-point victory over a mediocre Minnesota team. I’ll bet that Notre Dame would love to see any of those three in a semifinal. No. 1 seed Oregon looms on the other side of the bracket as the most likely national championship candidate on paper, but its path to the playoff is controversially challenging. The Ducks' reward for earning the top seed is a date with the winner of sleeping giants Ohio State and Tennessee. Win that and they would most likely see No. 5 seed Texas, whose path of Clemson and Arizona State looks just as favorable despite the extra game. I believe Notre Dame could beat both of those teams, but if Oregon is considered the greatest threat, it is worth noting they are no guarantee to be waiting in the title.
After the euphoric high of a program-defining win over Texas A&M in College Station followed by an all-time low in the hope opener a game later, head coach Marcus Freeman has brought this team a long way. In his first two seasons, he showed an inability to sustain routine winning. For all the griping about former coach Brian Kelly on his way out, it took Freeman only two seasons to match Kelly’s loss total over his final five seasons at Notre Dame. Many of those losses came against teams the Irish had no business losing to, Marshall and Stanford the prime examples. After the NIU loss, all of the tough questions for Freeman resurfaced as fast as they were silenced by the Week One win. But in the following 10 games, he flipped the script. Showing his team film of the NIU game every single week, he did not let them look past anyone on their dominant 10-game win streak. The dream of the magical third-year run remains alive and well for Freeman, and for the first time ever, it will start in South Bend.
