On Friday night, Notre Dame and Indiana will square off at Notre Dame Stadium in the first on-campus College Football Playoff game. The Irish and Hoosiers, both at 11-1 on the season, rank among the nation’s best teams in numerous categories. Here are five ways Notre Dame can reach its biggest win of the Marcus Freeman era and punch its ticket to the Sugar Bowl.
Don’t wait around
Notre Dame can’t afford to come out of the gate colder than the wintry air on Friday. Both the Irish and Hoosiers move and score the ball with tremendous efficiency, riding into the postseason as college football’s top two teams in offensive points per play. Unless this game starts in a 2023 Notre Dame vs. Ohio State-like defensive slog, it feels that if one offense doesn’t have its fastball in the opening quarter, the other will capitalize.
The Irish and Hoosiers each have the killer instinct, too. You can say what you’d like about strength of schedule, but Notre Dame and Indiana have blown out almost every team in their path, respectively ranking first and third nationally in scoring margin. Put momentum on the wrong sideline early, and you might not see control of the game again. Watch for the matchup between Notre Dame’s rushing offense and Indiana’s interior defense, both second in America in yards per carry, as the Irish look to establish their game on the first few drives.
Make Kurtis Rourke and company uncomfortable
Indiana has faced one team near the caliber of Notre Dame this season, and that team gave the Hoosiers the only blemish on their schedule. Ohio State clobbered the Hoosiers, 38-15, on Nov. 23, denying Indiana’s unbeaten bid in Curt Cignetti’s first head coaching season. How did the Buckeyes pull away with that game? By disrupting Indiana’s passing attack.
By all accounts, Indiana’s air raid has enjoyed a terrfic season under new signal-caller Kurtis Rourke. The Ohio transfer leads the Big Ten in yards per attempt and passing efficiency, leading to a career high of 27 passing touchdowns. Rourke finished the regular season with a dynamite, six-touchdown performance against Purdue, but the week before that in Columbus, he was 8-for-18 with 68 yards passing. Ohio State sacked Rourke five times and never gave him a chance to settle into the top-five matchup.
If any team has the track record to repeat Ohio State’s defensive performance, it’s Notre Dame. The Irish have left opponents with the lowest completion percentage (46.7) and passer rating (94.1) in the country this season, ranking fifth with 1.4 interceptions per game. All Notre Dame needs is a consistent pass rush, and with graduate defensive tackle Howard Cross III returning from a three-game absence for the Indiana game, the Irish will take a step in the right direction.
Own the early downs
Offensively, no team in America gets to third down less than Notre Dame and Indiana. With their effective rushing attacks and high-efficiency passing plans, the Irish and Hoosiers tend to go up and down the field quickly.
However, they haven’t run into one another’s defenses yet, so don’t expect either offense to coast for 60 minutes in the way that they might have in the regular season. Still, Notre Dame has to do everything it can to succeed on early downs, whether or not that involves moving the chains, for two reasons. First, the Irish don’t have it all figured out on third down, ranking 82nd in the country with a conversion percentage below 38%. That figure, for whatever reason, drops to 33.3% at home.
For the second reason, keep reading to Notre Dame's fourth key to victory.
Play aggressively on fourth down
Notre Dame’s most obvious problem heading into the postseason is kicking. With graduate kicker Mitch Jeter nursing an injury for the regular season’s entire second half, the Irish have lost all consistency in making field goals. As a result, they sit dead last in America with a field-goal make percentage of 44.4. It’s hard to imagine the situation has improved all that much in the last 20 days, especially with the weather conditions worsening as winter deepens in South Bend.
Depending on how Jeter looks and feels in warmups, Marcus Freeman may have to go Dan Campbell mode on Friday night and treat almost any fourth down on the plus side of midfield as a chance to keep drives alive. Statistically and stylistically, Notre Dame’s offense sets up well for fourth downs, especially from within three yards. The Irish rank seventh in college football with their 76% fourth-down conversion rate, and the tough, physical running ability of senior quarterback Riley Leonard bodes perfectly in short-yardage situations. Expect to see him get his nose dirty a few times in four-down territory against the Hoosiers.
Win the turnover battle
Coach Freeman has preached this key to victory all season, and it rings especially true heading into Friday. The Irish and Hoosiers both exist among the elites of college football in terms of turnover margin. Notre Dame has done so by taking the football away on interceptions, Indiana by taking great care of the football on offense.
Nevertheless, with both defenses playing at such high quality all season long, something may have to give. Indiana defensive end Mikail Kamara, one of 13 Cignetti-following transfers from James Madison, ranks second in the Big Ten with 10 sacks and could wreak real havoc in the Irish backfield. Notre Dame graduate safety Xavier Watts just earned consensus All-American status for the second consecutive year with five interceptions on the season. Both teams have stars on either side of the ball, and everyone will get theirs at some points throughout the night. Notre Dame’s best will just have to earn one or two more big moments.
