As conference championship weekend approaches, Madeline Ladd, Matthew Crow, Annika Herko, Tyler Reidy and Noah Cahill of The Observer’s football beat break down what the College Football Playoff might look like for Notre Dame.
Which team would you most want to see Notre Dame hosting in the College Football Playoff’s opening round?
Madeline Ladd, Assistant Managing Editor: Arizona State, under the assumption they were the No. 12 seed, would be an ideal matchup for Notre Dame in the opening round. Facing the Sun Devils would likely mean the Irish enter as the No. 5, securing the smoothest path to the title game. That said, the idea of hosting Alabama at Notre Dame Stadium is thrilling — it’s the kind of marquee matchup that would fuel the team’s ambition and energize Irish fans.
Matthew Crow, Sports Writer: An in-state duel between Notre Dame and Indiana in South Bend would be a lot of fun. Surprisingly, the programs have met just once in the last 66 years, with an Irish win in 1991 improving their record in the series to a dominant 23-5-1. This is not the same Hoosiers’ team of years past, though, and this would represent a heavyweight battle between a pair of 11-1 teams that are ranked in the top seven nationally in both scoring offense and defense. A key matchup to watch would be Indiana’s juggernaut run defense — which has ceded just 70 rushing yards per game, best in the country — taking on the Irish’s star running back tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, as well as mobile quarterback Riley Leonard.
Annika Herko, Associate Sports Editor: Whoever the No. 12 seed is. I appreciate all the arguments for an interesting matchup like Alabama but I’d like to see Notre Dame blow someone out and get a lot of confidence going into the next round.
Tyler Reidy, Sports Editor: While others run from them, I’m engraving an invitation to South Bend for the Alabama Crimson Tide. I’m not in the business of praying that Notre Dame draws the easiest possible matchup in the first round. If the Irish want to win a national championship, they’ll have to play one or two of the nation’s most talented teams at some point. Why not get right to the point and beat one of those teams in game one? The last decade-plus of Notre Dame football contains a long list of disappointments against college football elites. Georgia in 2017 and 2019. Ohio State in 2015, 2022 and 2023. Alabama in 2012 and 2020, Notre Dame’s last College Football Playoff game. I’d love to see the Irish strike back at Notre Dame Stadium.
Noah Cahill, Associate Sports Editor: It’s always “We want Bama” until Alabama actually comes to town. However, this is no longer Nick Saban’s Alabama, a program that the future Hall of Famer built into an empire during the 2000s. I have full belief that this Notre Dame team can beat Alabama and play with any team in the country. With that said, regardless of how exciting a matchup with the Crimson Tide could be, I would much rather see a team that poses less of a threat, a team with less talent and a lower ceiling than Alabama. My dream matchup would be with Miami, who currently sits controversially behind Alabama at No. 12 in the most recent CFP poll. Not only would the matchup be more favorable for the Irish, but it would renew one of the most exciting rivalries in college football, the Catholics vs the Convicts. I like the idea of bringing a team in Florida up north to face the winter weather of South Bend in late December, an environment I don’t expect this Hurricanes team to be prepared for. While they pose a threat offensively with Heisman candidate Cam Ward, their defense is a middle-of-the-pack unit and their performance against a soft schedule has been far from convincing. The two teams will meet in next year’s season opener, but an early preview in the playoff would be the dream.
Regardless of matchups, what’s the most likely outcome for Notre Dame in the CFP?
Ladd: Realistically, Notre Dame is more than well-positioned to win their first-round game, but advancing further will depend on execution and a bit of sheer luck. There’s no team in the field they can’t compete with, and their roster depth gives them a legitimate shot at the title. The Irish faithful are ready to believe and so am I … Why not win it all?
Crow: I fully believe that this Notre Dame team has the potential to win the national championship, but given all the chaos that’s gone on this season and the high level of parity that’s prevented anyone from truly separating themselves from the pack, I don’t think any team can realistically claim that their most likely outcome is to go all the way by winning four consecutive games against some of the nation’s top teams. Given the Irish’s likely advantageous seeding that could see them host their first-round matchup before facing off against one of the lower-seeded conference champions at a neutral site in round two, I think it’s most likely that they keep rolling all the way to the semifinals before falling one game short of the national title game. However, apart from possibly Oregon and the winner of next weekend’s Texas-Georgia SEC Championship, I’m not sure any team has a better chance than Notre Dame of surpassing that outcome and reaching the championship game.
Herko: Given the right circumstances and the right path, I could see Notre Dame winning the National Championship. However, I think everyone agrees Oregon is the team to beat this year and the likely No. 1 seed. If Notre Dame is the No. 5 seed and wins the first two rounds (as I expect them to), they’ll play Oregon in the semifinals. I’m nervous about how that game could go for Notre Dame.
Reidy: I wouldn’t call you crazy to believe in a Notre Dame national championship this year. No team in college football appears head and shoulders above the rest. Even undefeated Oregon looked awful just three weeks ago at Wisconsin, and numerous dominant programs from playoffs past are backpedaling into this year’s tournament with bad losses in the regular season’s second half. All the while, Notre Dame has run the table over the past two months and enters the postseason as hot as any team in the country. I keep some concerns that, at a neutral, climate-controlled venue, a playoff-season program will expose Notre Dame’s defensive injuries, but I also have reasons to believe the Irish can overcome something like that. Give me a semifinal appearance as the floor and a national championship victory as the ceiling.
Cahill: I believe that college football chose the perfect year to expand the playoff field. In a year with no standout contender, I fully believe that this Irish team can win a national championship. While the schedule has come with few tests, Notre Dame has left no doubt on their ten-game win streak to close out the year, beating the ten teams by a combined 314 points. Along the way, the offense has evolved from a non-existent passing attack with a questionable offensive line to a team with a clear identity: establish the ground game and build the passing attack off of it. The growth of a Joe Moore Award semifinalist-nominated offensive line and the emergence of sophomore superstar Jeremiyah Love in the backfield have contributed to this evolution, but the ceiling continues to be set by quarterback Riley Leonard, who has developed in offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s offense every week after the devastating NIU loss. Pair that with one of the most dominant defenses in the country and home-field advantage in round one, and this team can undoubtedly make a run. I believe the best scenario for this run to happen ride on the outcomes of the SEC and Big Ten conference championship games next week. The outlook for the Irish gets a lot brighter should Texas win and Penn State lose if it means Notre Dame vaults Clemson en route to the No. 5 seed, a real possibility considering Penn State’s questionable resume heading into a matchup with undefeated Oregon where they open up as underdogs against the Ducks. In this scenario, Notre Dame would likely face the Group of 5 conference champion in round one and the No. 4 seed in round two, likely the Big 12 champion. Both of those matchups are extremely favorable and would pave a clear path to the semifinal in Atlanta. From there, as I mentioned, the Irish can compete with any team, especially if their defense performs how they have all season. This team, like every team in the nation, has several question marks, the kicking game being a glaring one, but I feel their chances are as good as any if things break right. My honest prediction is an appearance in the CFP semifinal where they will fall short to a top seed, but third-year magic for head coach Marcus Freeman could be on the horizon.
