With Notre Dame already locked into the College Football Playoff, several more teams will jockey for positioning this weekend in conference championship games. The Irish only have a few possible seeding positions to land on, but their first-round opponent remains well up in the air.
The four strongest conference champions will earn a first-round bye in the top four spots, meaning that Notre Dame in the fifth, sixth or seventh spot can either draw a low-end conference champion or an at-large team. Before we dig into those scenarios, here’s a breakdown of each conference title game relevant to the Irish this weekend.
Friday night pits No. 20 UNLV (10-2) against No. 10 Boise State (11-1) in the Mountain West. The winner makes the College Football Playoff, Boise State likely as the No. 4 seed, and UNLV as the 12th and final team in as a two-loss conference champion.
This game’s outcome will impact the destination of the Big 12 champion, either No. 16 Iowa State (10-2) or No. 15 Arizona State (10-2). The Cyclones and Sun Devils will meet at noon on Saturday in another “win and in” conference championship game. With a Boise State win, the Big 12 champion claims the No. 12 seed and hits the road in round one. If UNLV gets it done, the Big 12 sends its winner to the second round with the No. 4 seed.
The formula isn’t quite as simple for the remaining three power conferences. At 4 p.m. on Saturday, No. 5 Georgia (10-2) and No. 2 Texas (11-1) will meet for an SEC rematch after the Bulldogs dismantled the Longhorns in Austin during the regular season. Four hours later, No. 3 Penn State (11-1) and No. 1 Oregon (12-0) will collide in the Big Ten. Like the Mountain West and Big 12, these are two conferences that will directly influence one another’s championship reward.
An Oregon one indisputably puts in the No. 1 seed, giving the Texas-Georgia winner the No. 2 spot. If Penn State wins, it slots into No. 2 behind Texas with a Longhorn victory but likely goes to No. 1 ahead of No. 2 Georgia with a Bulldog win. All four teams from the Big Ten and SEC championship games would make the playoff at large with a loss on Saturday
The final conference title game features No. 17 Clemson (9-3) and No. 8 SMU (11-1) out of the ACC. Clemson must win to slide into the postseason as the likely No. 12 seed. An SMU win would move the Mustangs into a first-round bye, but a loss would lead to an interesting conversation between two-loss SMU, two-loss Miami (FL) and three-loss Alabama.
The most likely scenario
Looking purely at the odds related to each conference championship game, what’s the most likely College Football Playoff bracket? Boise State would beat UNLV and bump it out of the running, Arizona State doing the same to Iowa State. Oregon and Texas would each win and lock up the top two spots, while SMU would knock out Clemson and capture a first-round bye.
In this event, we’re looking at unbeaten Oregon and one-loss Texas as the respective No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. SMU then claims the No. 3 position with one loss ahead of one-loss Boise State in the final bye position at No. 4.
With its second loss of the season, I think Penn State should fall behind Notre Dame, a one-loss team with more quality wins, and Ohio State, whom it lost two at home in November, but it can’t envision the committee pulling that trigger. From fifth to eighth, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia and Ohio State would host first-round games.
Down to No. 9 would go Tennessee. Indiana would most likely follow at No. 10, then three-loss Alabama at No. 11 and the weakest conference champion, Arizona State, would claim No. 12. The opening round would send Tennessee to Columbus, Indiana to Athens, Alabama to South Bend and Arizona State to State College. Third-seeded SMU would await the Irish in the second round.
As the sixth seed, Notre Dame most likely draws Alabama or SMU in the event of a Clemson ACC Championship and a correct committee decision to kick Alabama out. If the committee determines two-loss Penn State not worthy to stay ahead of the Irish, Notre Dame would take the fifth seed and host Arizona State in this scenario. Other possible fifth-seed opponents include Iowa State, Clemson and UNLV.
What else can happen if Notre Dame lands below the fifth spot?
All of the hypothetical brackets we’ve seen so far place Notre Dame in the No. 6 or No. 7 position, as Penn State hasn’t yet taken a second loss to warrant falling past the Irish. If Penn State beats Oregon on Saturday and Texas handles Georgia, Notre Dame would certainly end up at sixth, as the Ducks would have a better win (Ohio State) and loss (Penn State) than Notre Dame (Texas A&M and Northern Illinois).
In that situation, Notre Dame would once again definitely draw the team it ended the regular season projected to face: Alabama. The result that might throw a wrench into that possibility is Clemson beating SMU. In that case, Texas and Penn State would join Boise State and the Big 12 champion with first-round byes. We’d still have Oregon and Notre Dame at No. 5 and No. 6, respectively, then some combination of Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee and Indiana from seventh to 10th. Clemson would claim the 12th position, leading to the inevitable debate between SMU and Alabama for the No. 11 spot. I’d choose SMU, particularly if Texas beats Georgia to degrade Alabama’s best win, sending the Mustangs to South Bend.
Things could get even weirder if both Penn State and Georgia upset their higher-ranked foes. The committee would surely keep Oregon ahead of Notre Dame, but what about a Texas team with two losses to Georgia?
Let’s assume, for the scenario’s sake, that Notre Dame slides all the way down to No. 7, behind the Ducks and Longhorns. Now you’re looking at Ohio State in the No. 8 position in front of No. 9 Tennessee and No. 10 Indiana, giving the Irish an in-state matchup against the Hoosiers.
My final prediction
Boise State takes care of UNLV in the Mountain West. Arizona State, easily the hotter team than Iowa State right now, wins the Big 12 title. Georgia knocks off Texas for a second time this year in Atlanta, while Oregon remains unbeaten in Indianapolis. Finally, SMU downs unimpressive Clemson to cap off the weekend.
The bracket I’d expect from this combination would lend first-round byes to Oregon, Georgia, SMU and Boise State. If the committee isn’t ranking two-loss Georgia over Notre Dame right now, I don’t think it should keep two-loss Texas ahead of the Irish, either. But I once again don’t expect a conference championship loser to receive much punishment, so Texas stays ahead of Notre Dame. Give me Texas at No. 5, Penn State at No. 6, Notre Dame at No. 7, Ohio State at No. 8, Tennessee at No. 9, Indiana at No. 10, Alabama at No. 11 and Arizona State at No. 12.
Applying the logic I expect the committee to use, Indiana comes to South Bend.
