Noah Cahill
Notre Dame and Penn State. The two teams that have historically failed to win the big one. Under Brian Kelly, fans lamented the inability of the Irish to break into the upper echelon of college football. Their best attempts came in the 2013 BCS Championship against Alabama where they were blown out, and two College Football Playoff appearances against Alabama and Clemson, both one-sided affairs. On the other hand, James Franklin’s Penn State team has lost 14 of its 15 top-five matchups during his tenure. Both appear to be flipping the script in this year’s playoff, but only one will take the next step. While Marcus Freeman has already broken the big-game curse in Notre Dame’s 23-10 handling of Georgia in the quarterfinal, the Nittany Lions, despite looking strong, have yet to face a similar test, skating by SMU and Boise State by multiple scores in their first two games.
The Irish open up as slight favorites in the Orange Bowl matchup. News of Jeremiyah Love’s health plays a significant role. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has built an offense on the foundation of a young, budding offensive line and three-headed monster in the backfield with Love, Riley Leonard and Jadarian Price. Facing one of the best defensive lines in the country, Notre Dame will need all three at their explosive best. The story of this team all season, however, has been Al Golden and his dominant defensive unit, which despite key injuries, has managed to shut down just about every offense it has faced. Again, it led the way against Georgia, an offense powered by a prolific rushing attack. Howard Cross III’s return to health along with depth on the defensive line stepping up was essential to containing it. But, they face an even steeper challenge against Penn State, their backfield pairing of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton combining for over 2,000 yards this season. Through the air, the connection between Drew Allar and Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren has been lethal and will test this Irish coverage unit.
Losing Rylie Mills for the season begged questions about the defensive line and how it would hold up against Georgia. It more than answered them against the Bulldogs. I see the group doing the same against Penn State. If I had to choose a pair of safeties to corral Warren, it would be Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler. On offense, the Irish overcame a quiet game from Love and got a sound performance from Riley Leonard, a good sign heading into this game. I believe Freeman has proven he is ready for the moment by how he coached that Georgia game. His counterpart in Franklin has only ever fallen short in the same kind of games. I think he and the Nittany Lions will do so again. Notre Dame will win a hard-fought game of smash-mouth football and punch their ticket to the national championship in Atlanta.
Notre Dame 24, Penn State 17
Matthew Crow
In many ways, Notre Dame and Penn State feel closely aligned as programs. Both Midwestern schools have forged identities as having physical, hard-nosed teams that typically feature outstanding defenses and strong rushing attacks. Both programs rank among the most storied in college football history but have not claimed a national championship since the 1980s. In recent years, they have gained reputations for faltering on the sport’s biggest stage. After taking the first step toward shedding those labels last week with victories in the CFP quarterfinals, the Irish and Nittany Lions stand just one win away from a berth in the national title game.
A Penn State offense that struggled at times against top competition during the regular season has hit its stride as of late, eclipsing 30 points in each of its three postseason games behind standout play from quarterback Drew Allar and the elite running back duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. But the Irish defense has passed every test presented to it all season long – most recently limiting Georgia to just 10 points in the Sugar Bowl – and will likely bring a heavy dose of pressure to keep Allar uncomfortable throughout the game while relying on its speed on the edge to slow the Nittany Lions’ dynamic ground game.
For Notre Dame, the bigger questions come on the other side of the ball. The Irish offense delivered in key moments in the 23-10 win over Georgia but had trouble finding a rhythm for much of the night, gaining just 244 total yards of offense. Notre Dame effectively controlled the clock and played mistake-free football, but relied largely on a special teams score, timely turnovers forced by the Irish defense and three long field goals from kicker Mitch Jeter to put points on the board. If fewer breaks go their way against Penn State, they’ll need to find ways to move the ball more consistently on Thursday to come away with a win. And with star running back Jeremiyah Love expected to play in the Orange Bowl but possibly not at full strength, the X factor for Notre Dame may be how effective quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jadarian Price can be in the run game. Meanwhile, wide receiver Jordan Faison will look to continue his late-season surge to spark an Irish passing attack that totaled just 90 yards against Georgia.
While this one feels almost too close to call, the dominance of the Notre Dame defense – even while withstanding several crucial season-ending injuries – is what leads me to lean toward the Irish. I don’t expect either side to create much separation over the course of the four quarters, but one or two game-changing defensive moments from Notre Dame (ranked first nationally in takeaways) and steady crunch-time play from Leonard and Co. will be enough to send the Irish to Atlanta for the CFP championship.
Notre Dame 27, Penn State 17
Annika Herko
Any way you look at this game, it’s going to be a close one, but Notre Dame’s advantage will come from its special teams. Bryce Young almost blocked two punts against the Bulldogs, and Jayden Harrison ran back a 98-yard touchdown on a kick return. The Irish have always had dynamic special teams play, and getting a takeaway because of it could disrupt the Nittany Lions’ momentum.
Drew Allar is arguably one of the best quarterbacks Notre Dame has faced this season. He does not hesitate to throw long and delivers with pinpoint accuracy. The Irish cornerbacks and safeties will need to stay disciplined and avoid costly defensive pass-interference calls. While Penn State is likely to focus on establishing the run early, if Notre Dame’s defensive line replicates its dominant performance from last week, the Irish should emerge victorious.
Notre Dame 24, Penn State 21
Tyler Reidy
This game must belong to Riley Leonard, in more ways than one. Penn State and Notre Dame bring two of the nation’s premier defenses into the Orange Bowl, putting a premium on Thursday night’s points. With both teams more than happy to play a gritty style of football, a few key factors that I believe favor Notre Dame will make a difference.
First, there’s Leonard’s mobility. With Penn State’s quarterback being a pocket passer, the Nittany Lions won’t break out of the slugfest unless they hit downfield passes, a tough ask against the Irish secondary. Notre Dame doesn’t have to bank on that. Its signal-caller just ran for a massive 80 yards against Georgia and can change the game with a few timely takeoffs in Miami.
Second, there’s the turnover battle, another big item in low-scoring games. Both teams take care of the football well, but Notre Dame generates about half a takeaway more per game than Penn State. The Irish enter the Orange Bowl with its seemingly weakest defensive link, the line, having just sacked Georgia four times to force two turnovers. If that momentum continues against Penn State, Notre Dame should advance.
Notre Dame 24, Penn State 13
