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Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025
The Observer

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Football beat picks: Sugar Bowl

After postponement, Notre Dame and Georgia will square off in the Caesars Superdome

Noah Cahill

In 2013, Notre Dame was decimated in the BCS title game by a superior Alabama team. Both of their College Football Playoff trips in the four-team era ended in resounding defeats at the hands of Alabama and Clemson. It quickly became clear in those games that Notre Dame was not of the same caliber. Now, for the first time in a long time, Notre Dame goes into a big game against one of college football’s major powers with genuine belief. More than that, they and many others feel like they should win this game against a three-loss Bulldog team without starting quarterback Carson Beck.

No. 2 seed Georgia’s talent on both sides of the ball is undeniable. Their defensive line is loaded with NFL prospects and showed their ability to shut down the run, particularly in both of their victories over No. 5 seed Texas, the second of which in the SEC Championship to punch a ticket to the playoff. With that said, they showed weakness against a Georgia Tech rushing attack led by mobile quarterback Haynes King and his backfield partner Jamal Haynes, the duo combining for 201 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love pose the same threat on an even higher level.

The most interesting matchup on the field, and the one that will define the outcome of this game, is the Irish defensive line against this Bulldog front. The group has been decimated by injuries, with graduate student Rylie Mills the most recent and significant casualty. He joins graduate student Jordan Botelho and sophomore Boubacar Traore on the sideline as key absences from the line. Howard Cross III’s lingering ankle injury, which kept him out of the final three regular season games, is also a concern. Star cornerback Benjamin Morrison is arguably the biggest loss of anyone on the defense, especially with Al Golden’s aggressive man coverage game plan for the secondary. The junior projected first-round pick was ruled out of the season with a hip injury after the Stanford game. But despite the flurry of injuries, Golden’s group has continued to perform as well as any defense in the country, powered by key contributions from young players. If the line can hold up against the Bulldog rushing attack, I trust Golden more than anyone in the country to scheme up pressure on Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton, who proved his potential to crumble in the title game. 

Under head coach Marcus Freeman in his third year, this Notre Dame team finally feels different. It’s hard to pick against a talented Georgia team with one of the best coaches in college football, but I believe the matchup is favorable for the Irish. I see a competitive game of smash-mouth football on the horizon. A few Gunner Stockton turnovers and the brilliance of Leonard and Love will manufacture enough points for the Irish to prevail and finally break the big game curse. 

Notre Dame 24, Georgia 21

Matthew Crow

On paper, Georgia looks like the toughest opponent Notre Dame has faced this season by a fairly wide margin. The SEC champions boast a bevy of impressive wins that include four victories over CFP participants — Clemson, Tennessee and a pair of wins over Texas. However, the Bulldogs have looked far more vulnerable than they have over the past three seasons, when they rolled their way to a 42-2 record and a pair of national titles. Georgia was defeated handily by Ole Miss and trailed by three possessions at halftime against Alabama before suffering a narrow defeat, and they scraped past Kentucky and Georgia Tech by a combined three points. After needing overtime to win in their last two outings, they’ll look to be sharper as they face a red-hot Irish team riding an 11-game win streak.

Georgia has been strong all year offensively — with most of that success coming through the air — but faces question marks in that area following the season-ending injury to star quarterback Carson Beck. Notre Dame’s stifling secondary could make things difficult for the Bulldogs’ passing game all night and force Georgia to lean on the run, where it has averaged just 4.2 yards per carry this year.

What’s been more surprising has been the relative struggles that the Bulldogs have faced on defense. A normally dominant unit has ceded more than 20 points per game, and it’s notably had issues containing mobile quarterbacks, with the quarterbacks for Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech having combined to run for 277 yards and five touchdowns against Georgia. Luckily for the Irish, in Riley Leonard, they have an elite running quarterback — 751 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the year — suited perfectly to capitalize on the holes in the Bulldogs’ defense. I see Leonard having a big day on the ground, and if Georgia keys in on stopping the run, look for him to take a few more downfield shots than usual to receivers like Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison.

Georgia has proven itself all year long as one of the best teams in the nation while grinding its way through an absolute gauntlet of a schedule, but Notre Dame has been waiting years for the chance to earn a truly huge win on college football’s biggest stage. On the heels of an impressive performance in a first-round victory over Indiana, this looks like their moment to finally break through. It will be a 60-minute dogfight, but a go-ahead score in the final minutes will push the Irish just past the Bulldogs and into the CFP semifinals.

Notre Dame 24, Georgia 20

Annika Herko

Georgia has been trying to tell anyone who will listen that it can just plug in Gunner Stockton to the starting quarterback position and carry on, business as usual. Well, if that is the case, that does not say much about the injured Carson Beck. Stockton has never started a game and hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since the 2023 season. One can expect Georgia’s game plan to be run-oriented, especially with Notre Dame defensive lineman Rylie Mills out after a knee injury against Indiana. With both teams likely focused on the run game, whoever wins clock management and ball control will move on to the semifinals. 

Notre Dame 21, Georgia 13

Tyler Reidy

We haven’t seen it much up to this point in the College Football Playoff, but this game is going to remain up for grabs for nearly all 60 minutes. I also think we’ll see a low-scoring battle similar to those between Georgia and Notre Dame in 2017 and 2019, when Brian Kelly coached the Irish. However, unlike those two September games, this one will end with Notre Dame on top.

The major question of the Sugar Bowl centers around how each team will respond to personnel changes. With Rylie Mills injured against Indiana, Notre Dame will face Georgia down three of its four best defensive linemen. The Bulldogs lost starting quarterback Carson Beck in their last game, the SEC Championship, and now turn to the less polished and proven but perhaps more dynamic Gunner Stockton.

I’m not necessarily picking the Irish to win because I’m totally confident that they’ll beat Georgia, but because I view them as a safer bet to navigate their losses. Notre Dame has been cycling through injuries, especially on defense, since its 11-game win streak began at Purdue. Georgia hasn’t even played a full game yet without the leader of its offense and enters its first against a top-tier Irish pass defense.

Notre Dame’s ability to fight through adversity, combined with the improving status of kicker Mitch Jeter, will get it across the finish line in New Orleans.

Notre Dame 20, Georgia 17