As the third anniversary of Russia’s full scale invasion approaches, the global outlook on the war remains tense. Despite predictions of Ukraine’s early surrender, the country has endured over 1,000 days of conflict. But even as Ukraine resists, its capacity to continue fighting faces increasing scrutiny.
Notre Dame professors specializing in international law, global affairs and conflict resolution offered their perspectives on the war’s trajectory, the potential for negotiation and the broader implications of the international order.
Clemens Sedmak, a professor of social ethics and director of the Nanovic Institute for European Studies, described the current situation rather bluntly.
“It’s not going well. Let’s just put it that way,” Sedmak said. “We are today on day 1,082 of the full-scale invasion. But we shouldn’t forget that the war started in 2014. This is not just three years, but 11.”
Sedmak pointed to Ukraine’s mounting casualties and growing concerns about the strength of support from its American and European partners.
“In the east of Ukraine, Russian troops are progressing slowly but still progressing. It is unclear where things will go,” he said.
He furthered his commentary by emphasizing the staggering human cost of consistent violence and destruction.
“45,100 soldiers lost. That’s just the Ukrainian forces killed in action. That doesn’t include the wounded, the disabled or the countless civilians caught in the destruction,” Sedmak noted. “Russia’s losses appear to be far greater but their leadership has shown little concern for human life, even their own soldiers.”
Sedmak also highlighted the need to humanize Ukraine’s struggles.
“We try very hard to see Ukraine as a country with a face.”
Mary Ellen O’Connell, professor of law and international peace studies at the Kroc Institute underscored the conflict’s legal dimension and its broader significance.
“I’ve always taken a very firm view that Russia has absolutely no right to use force against Ukraine, certainly not over NATO expansion, and that it has a legal duty to give up all territory it holds,” O’Connell said.
When asked about conflict resolution, she emphasized that a negotiated settlement is inevitable.
“All wars end with negotiations. I can’t say I have real confidence that peace will come within a year, but I pray for Ukraine every day.”
For O’Connell, the war is an important reminder of the failing role of diplomacy in international relations.
“It’s a conflict that should never have happened if diplomacy had been better used, if the US had for many years been more committed to international law and to peaceful settlement of disputes,” she said.
She also stressed the need to support Ukraine in any way possible. She asked Notre Dame students to do a few tasks.
“Follow three simple things: pray, stay informed and act for Ukraine. This campus is deeply committed to Ukraine, and they need our moral support now more than ever,” O’Connell said.
She acknowledged the hardship Ukrainian civilians are facing.
“They’ve had so many years of their life taken. You know, this is like lockdown during COVID on steroids. People are not free to come and go. You cannot get on a plane and fly out of Ukraine. You have to go by train if you're coming from abroad. It’s very difficult. The cities in the east are bombed. They’ve lost their churches. There’s just so much heartbreak. And young people want a better future in Ukraine,” she said.
She further reflected on the resilience of international law against war.
“This law, because it is part of the natural law, because it is so inherent in who we are as human beings. No matter how badly it’s violated, broken down, it doesn’t go away. It’s always there for us to renew it and build it again,” O’Connell said. “Law is nothing more than the belief and the commitment we make to it. It’s an idea. It’s on paper, and people should never think that if there are no police, there’s no law.”
David Cortright, professor emeritus, echoed O’Connell’s sentiments on the necessity of negotiations.
“We know from our study of other peace processes, you can’t just saunter in one day and say, ‘Here I am. Let’s talk,’” he said. “These are not, you know, discussions between Mother Teresa and Pope Francis. These are states, in the case of Putin, an aggressor state that has killed hundreds of thousands of people, threatening to use nuclear weapons, etc. So, you're not going to get a perfect deal that is squeaky clean from the point of view of a moral, ethical standard.”
Cortright noted that severe sanctions on Russia by the Western world have inflicted grave and crippling damage on the Russian economy.
“I mean, they’re not stopping the war, but they certainly are causing severe economic hardships for Russia and undermining its financial position and setting back Russia economically by decades, probably. But those sanctions are leverage. They’re tremendous leverage,” he said.
Cortright highlighted the potential diplomatic frameworks for ending the war, setting forth what would essentially be required for negotiations to follow through.
“A deal would likely involve Ukraine postponing NATO membership, Russia withdrawing from occupied territories except Crimea and a long-term supervised process for determining control over other annexed areas,” he said.
Nevertheless, he acknowledges the difficulty in reaching said terms.
“Whether Russia or Ukraine would accept such a deal. It’s highly questionable. Many Ukrainians want to continue fighting till the very end, and they’ve had this heroic resistance over the last three years. It’s unbelievable ... they’ve lost a lot of ground, but they’re still fighting and holding their ground,” Cortright said.
He also underscored the importance of the United States and President Donald Trump’s influence on the war.
“The US certainly would have to be there as a guarantor, a supporter of Ukraine, and given our role in the world as a state that has to play a role in moderating and helping to implement whatever agreement comes out,” he shared.
Sedmak reinforced that U.S. policy remains the biggest unknown factor in the war.
“I think the most important variable, unknown arrival, is the United States of America — the way the U.S. will move forward in the new administration,” Sedmak said.
Sedmak warned that Ukraine’s fate carries implications far beyond its borders. The stakes are far broader than Ukraine’s territory.
“If Ukraine falls, we have no idea what it means for the Baltic nations, for other nations, for the idea of a global world order, where the perpetrators go unpunished, rewarded. What Russia did is a violation of all standards of international law,” Sedmak said. “My real hope is that at some point there will be fatigue, fatigue on [both] sides and they will enter some kind of negotiations, whether the negotiations will bring the eastern provinces, the territories that were lost from Ukraine to Russia, back to Ukraine. I cannot say right now."
Cortright, however, warned against assuming a quick resolution.
“It seems hard to imagine that it would go another three years at this ferocious level of devastation and death, but we’ve seen wars that have gone on for five or more years.”
Sedmak reaffirmed Notre Dame’s solidarity with Ukraine.
“Notre Dame stands in solidarity with Ukraine. We have a special relationship with the Ukrainian Catholic University, and our community must stay informed, engaged and continue to pray for Ukraine and for a just peace.”
